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      08-07-2012, 09:36 PM   #5
rgrovr
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I thought there was some number fudging going on for a while now with the BLS.. but this takes the cake. From ZeroHedge (emphasis mine):

Quote:
Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs "added", 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging.
The publish jobs report is minimally impacted by the 9,000 gov jobs loss and more of a statistical crapshoot on a) how many folks left the job market, b) the actual size of the job market itself, c) the number of seasonal adjustments, and the under-reporting of part-time folks in need of a full-time job.

It doesn't help that the unemployment rate is based on a phone survey that doesn't include cellphones (aka young people).
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