First off Nate was off by a large margin in the very last election in 2010. And if I'm taking any advice from a pollster - it would be Charlie Cook (NationalJournalDaily
)who is pretty much the dean.
Also - the RealClearPolitics
average of all the polls (dem, independt, or repub) shows Obama with a 0.1% lead right now. 0.1% for an incumbent who spent the whole summer attacking his opponent when the other guy could not yet spend his general election funds.
And unlike 2008, Obama will not outgain or outspend his opponent. Romney's campaign is cleaning his clock on fundraising.
But germane to the OP was the fact that the one keystone piece of legislation that the President stated would help us break out of the recession - did the opposite of work, it made the situation worse - using their own metric. People aren't that dumb - they know that Pres. Obama hasn't delivered and that tends to be the death-knell for an incumbent. Not saying impossible to win, but its highly improbable.