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      09-06-2012, 06:09 AM   #6
BKsBimmer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rgrovr View Post
I would encourage you to take a peek at the polls prior to the 1980 election for this same time frame 2 months out to the that election. Carter was up on Reagan 44 to 40 and got as high as 47-39 in Carters favor (Gallup Polls 1936-2000)

Much was stated about Carter's likeability edge and Reagan's supposed vacillation on issues (he used to be a Dem). The 2012 and 1980 election are eerily similar. I'm not saying we're in for a Repub landslide, but Romney is better suited financially, is on offense on Obama states he won last time, has a significant lead with Independents which offsets Obama's edge with women, and Dem enthusiasm is no where near 2008 levels.

Plus 23 Dem Senate seats are up versus 10 for Republicans, so the Dems have lots more to defend than Repubs and are ahead in polling on the majority of those competitive races.

And with 2010 being the last election we can measure as a bellweather for partisan breakdown and GOTV efforts. Republicans are well positioned to win and win decisively imo.
Personally I think you are falling into the trap of wishful thinking. I understand why you would be inclined to make the comparison but the conditions today are much different than in 1980. Romney is not Reagan and Obama is not Jimmy Carter. A better comparison would probably be 2004 Bush v Kerry, though that would still not be a totally accurate comparison.

You are overlooking some very important facts. This will be a near 50/50 election. All but 6 percent of the electorate has already made up it's mind. Unlike in 1980 when Reagan was able to persuade a sizeable number of disaffected Democrats to vote for him there will be no "Romney Democrats" in 2012. That would be the only scenario that could create a decisive victory for Republicans and it's just not going to happen this year. Add to that the electoral math just happens to be more advantageous for he Democrats than for the Republicans this cycle. Romney needs to win all the swing states in order to get a victory whereas Obama only needs 3. Romney could actually win the popular vote and lose the election.

Regarding the enthusiasm gap I suspect that will be shored up pretty well by the end of the convention. So far the Dems are making better use of their convention time by rallying the base and also appealing more to the middle. The Democrats have also been quietly mounting a ground game that is even more impressive than the one Carl Rove helped George W Bush organize in 2004. All that said I am under no illusion that the Democrats have this election locked up, not even close. Romney and the Republicans could definitely win this year. But if they do it will be a squeeker in a year when it should be a landslide.
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