Originally Posted by OldArmy
Naaah, I'm not at all certain about this outcome. There are more democrats so sheer numbers do count. But I suspect that the polls have not captured what I see as a quiet determination on the part of a lot of people to get this guy out of office. I also think there are a number of disappointed dems who answer pollsters but may sleep in on election day. Also while I may be comfortable prognosticating a bit, the popular vote and electoral college may well come out differently this time.
How's this (and I'll eat the appropriate amount of crow if wrong): In a low turnout, Romney by five points in the popular vote.
This thing is close, no doubt. But in this election cycle the electoral math favors the president. Romney could actually win the popular vote and still lose the election. So again, we'll see...