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      11-05-2012, 04:24 PM   #25
First Lieutenant
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Something or someone will be VERY wrong tomorrow. The toplines of most polls (and what the aggregrate pollsters capture) show virtually tied or Obama within a MOE lead or Romney within a MOE lead.

But the internals are absolutely brutal for the President. The gender gap is nullified or Romney +1, the Independents are wholesale lost to the President in comparison to 2008 where he won them by 6pts and now is losing in some of these polls by 20pt+!

Usually, every election cycle - the mantra is whoever wins independents, wins the election. Well Romney is running away with them. So how can the toplines show a virtual deadheat when the internals show a blowout?

If you believe that 2012 turnout will be the same as 2008 (D+7) - I'm of that camp that considers anyone crazy if they do so. Enthusiasm is unquestionably on the Republican side and nothing has changed since 2010 when the landslide for Republicans had R+5 tilt.

Once you see it that way, it makes sense how CNN can put out a poll with the race tied, terrible internals for the incumbent but a D+11 tilt on the makeup of the race. I will kiss my monkey's uncle if tomorrow's turnout ends up D+11 which would be more than the historic 2008 campaign and a repudiation of 2010. That's crazy talk.
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