View Single Post
      11-06-2012, 04:32 AM   #31
JMX328
Insert Something Witty.
 
Drives: 2009 328i
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: California

Posts: 32
iTrader: (0)

Purely a prediction, but this is how I think the result will look like:




Ohio is the center point. Early voting information is being release, and currently:

Obama is down 154k votes from 2008.
Romney is up 108k from 2008 (McCain, obviously).
Obama's margin of victory in Ohio was 262k.

That puts them squarely tied. However, the issue for Obama is that Republican enthusiasm is up sharply than in 2008. Independents are heavily favoring Romney over Obama. And finally, Democrats are less enthused and lesser likely to vote.

A CNN poll (I can't find the link, otherwise I'd post it) has Romney up 6-7% in Ohio for those voting ON election day (not early, not mail, but physically voting). If that's the case, Obama is in serious trouble in Ohio.

Also major issue is that most major polling outfits are modeling voter turnout based off 2008 numbers (with D 5-13+). Democrats are generally 2-3 points ahead in actual voting. This spells another major problem for Obama.

I predict it will repeat 1980 (not in terms of electoral votes, but in terms of polls; 1980 had Carter winning by 2.7% on the final polling going into election day), and Romney will win.

Do I want Romney to win? Absolutely. Until the debates, however, I had my doubts. After that, and after his surge, I became more optimistic. Having reviewed polling data from almost every source, I have a distinct feeling the pollsters are out of touch with the electorate, in judging turnout.

But, it's all moot point - we'll have to see how it all goes down later today.
JMX328 is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote