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      08-20-2010, 10:35 AM   #186
Nautik
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Quote:
Originally Posted by escobar929 View Post
I know man, thats gonna be awesome. I hope Randy throws him a beating
This is exactly how the fight will go down between Couture and Toney:

1: Randy will stay to the outside until he can time a punch and move in for the clinch or straight to a takedown

2: Toney might have time for 1-2 good punches if he is lucky while Randy is at a good range to land solid hits (which is really his only shot at winning the fight)

3: Normally you could argue that boxing has a good clinch game, which it does, and that Toney could still KO Randy from the clinch. However, Randy's clinch is outstanding (did you see him control Lesnar?) and Toney would be lucky to land even 1 good inside hit before Randy completes a take-down. I don't expect Toney to be on his feet very long at all if they end up in the clinch.

4. Either way, if Toney doesn't get that KO in the 1-2 good punches he might have, he is going to be on his back and the fight will be over. I doubt he has any BJJ and if you don't have BJJ and you are on your back you are done for.

I am expecting Randy to win with a Submission via choke in the 2nd round. I expect Toney to survive using pure athleticism for the first round. Also Randy will be more focused on controlling him on the ground while Toney is still fresh. I am even willing to call the choke, I foresee rear-naked (big surprise right?).

Why not TKO from ground and pound? Randy is a classy guy and I'm sure he has respect for Toney's accomplishments. He knows this guy can take punishment so he is not going to make this an ugly fight. He will put him to sleep civilly.

Why rear-naked? Randy is going straight to side body after the take-down (not like Toney has a guard game to contend with). He will prefer this to mount because it is easier to control people from, there are more subs available which is what he is after, and he wants him to turn over. Randy also prefers side control being that he is so used to wrestling and not to mention it will sap Toney's strength faster because someone like Randy will feel like 400 lbs on your chest.

Soon as Toney turns over to try and get up (because that is all he can do) Randy will take his back and sink in the rear-naked.

Why not arm bar? I suspect Randy wants something more guaranteed. Also it is hard to armbar a very strong person when they are fresh and you have to give up a bit more control while transitioning to it vs waiting for a choke. The last thing Randy wants is Toney getting up.

I suspect Toney even knows this is how the fight will go down but good luck stopping it.

There you have it! Short of a freak KO during that time Toney can get his 1-2 good shots in while Randy has to come in range to clinch or take down (if Randy times it poorly which I doubt he will) Randy wins via choke. I am officially calling for rear-naked but something in me sees arm-triangle as being a good probability as well (especially if Toney refuses to give up his back).
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