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      07-12-2013, 12:51 AM   #1
stylinexpat
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Anyone trading currency? I like the USD/JPY

I got a target price of $105-110 within a year. The $20K bet on it. For every $1K purchased you can buy $200K worth of USD/JPY. For every 1% up or down it moves in that direction it will be a $2K profit or loss so only bet what you can afford to lose or hang on to. Figuring a 10% Gain or loss one would only be able to bet $1K for every $11K that they have to give themselves a 10% currency cushion. If the YEN drops to 105 from the current say 100 (roughly 99 today) then $1K becomes 10K but if it goes the other way then you are down $11K.

I reckon that the odds are in favor of the YEN weakening instead of gaining so I see this as a good bet based on my living experience here in Asia and knowing that the current economic conditions here in Asia for exports are bad. The YEN went from 140 to under 80 (around 79) and then dropped to 100. The best time to have gotten in was when it was at or around 79-80 which was easy money back then.

The Thai Baht will one day also drop again as I doubt they can sustain good export numbers with the Thai Baht being under 30 Baht to the Dollar. China will most likely push its currency to strengthen to around 5.80-6.00 before it tanks after as it hurts exports and their economic growth numbers. The currency strength has already started to take a toll on exports out of China recently. Growth numbers are down but there is still growth so since there is still growth the currency will continue to climb in my opinion and once growth comes to a stall then the currency will collapse (then comes the short opportunity ).

Looking long term on these..
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