E90Post
 


GetBMWParts
 
BMW 3-Series (E90 E92) Forum > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board > Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis



Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      06-09-2012, 11:18 PM   #991
Hisam135i
Major
 
Hisam135i's Avatar
 
Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

Posts: 1,157
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity
Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Sorry bears.
No need for the kind words. That $100B Euros is going be pulled straight out again from the bank runs happening in Spain. They've already taken out $97B Euros this year, now they're asking Germany for the bailout to cover that. Just watch for Greek Elections. If Syriza wins, the bank "jogs" currently happening around Europe are going to turn into full on Bank Sprints. A lot more money is needed.

Charts do look like they have an upside of about +25 on SPX, +250-300 on DOW, or about ~1.8%. Still full short.
I am also short and not to worried due to the fact my puts are out until the 7/21 and the fact that it hasn't been decided on how the money is going to be divided as vanity stated. Awkwardly the banks and government are broke and just taking a stab in the dark but government > banks Aka the money is going to go to the government first still leaving the banks uncovered. Greek elections are what's going to be deciding factor
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Hisam135i is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      06-10-2012, 10:20 PM   #992
r0wr
New Member
 
Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Posts: 5
iTrader: (0)

After doing more research, I believe that we'll have 2 more legs up, making it in total of three legs. If you watched the market closely, my call of a second leg coming are most definitely confirmed given futures. 100% measured move is 137.67. Whether or not we'll make it there, I don't know. I like the 61.8%mm at 135.23 better but futures is a ways ahead of that so we will see.
r0wr is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-11-2012, 11:00 AM   #993
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
My current take is this rebound ended today after the intra-reversal. Estimating the SPX to fall from 1315 down to 1265-1215 region, then another leg up that would take us past 1340, with a target of 1340-1400 (possibly). All relative and will probably change as trading continues.
Posted this on Thursday, and went full short that day to put my money where my mouth is. I had previously posted that this rebound was going to take us into the region of 1290-1342. Futures had hit 1346 and then quickly fell from there. The next ST target I have is 1265-1215. That's a 85-130 point drop from here. I suspect this leg down is going to give us a traceable bottom for a while, as I suspect panic selling is going to kick in now. Why now? Because this decline will be coming off a failed bailout, and bulls will finally realize why I've been saying for a while that bailouts have run their course and cannot be used to kick the can any further, whether the money is from the Fed, the ECB, or Lagarde's overly-ambitious/intrusive IMF.

The next tradable bottom has the potential to take us to 1340-1400, depending on how trading goes. I severely doubt we will make a new high this year.

Sorry Bulls.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      06-11-2012, 01:54 PM   #994
r0wr
New Member
 
Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Posts: 5
iTrader: (0)

Looks like the 61.8%mm failed as did the 50%mm. Maybe there isn't another leg up? Vanity, what are you short? I have a statistic from a very reliable source that there is a 74% chance we will erase all gains that we've had since the most recent rebound and that it should be close.

Also, could you shoot me your e-mail? I'd like to pick your mind.
r0wr is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-11-2012, 03:16 PM   #995
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Looks like the 61.8%mm failed as did the 50%mm. Maybe there isn't another leg up? Vanity, what are you short? I have a statistic from a very reliable source that there is a 74% chance we will erase all gains that we've had since the most recent rebound and that it should be close.

Also, could you shoot me your e-mail? I'd like to pick your mind.
I play broad-based ETF's and rarely stock pick, unless it's from the bottom of something. But, imo, I like to use leverage so stocks dont return as much. Plus, ETF's are the only way to go during these volatile times as their asset allocations go up dramatically, making them very fluid to get-in-and-out-of. Stocks, you might get trapped in going to the bottom like in 08/09, with no buyers.

Right now I'm playing UVXY cause I love hedging with VIX futures. I made 16% today Managed to buy in UVXY full-portfolio () last week during the 3 days 60-handle rally on SPX, and got UVXY for half-off. Expecting to make to make up to a double in this next leg down with it.

And I agree with the erase of all gains, but I'd go further and say we start the next down leg (with panic selling) to 1265-1215. Then the potential for a ST tradeable bottom before the next leg up (potentially to 1350-1400).

My email has my full name and I keep that for business purposes, but feel free to shoot me a PM like the other members do.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      06-11-2012, 03:34 PM   #996
Hisam135i
Major
 
Hisam135i's Avatar
 
Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

Posts: 1,157
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity
Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Looks like the 61.8%mm failed as did the 50%mm. Maybe there isn't another leg up? Vanity, what are you short? I have a statistic from a very reliable source that there is a 74% chance we will erase all gains that we've had since the most recent rebound and that it should be close.

Also, could you shoot me your e-mail? I'd like to pick your mind.
I play broad-based ETF's and rarely stock pick, unless it's from the bottom of something. But, imo, I like to use leverage so stocks dont return as much. Plus, ETF's are the only way to go during these volatile times as their asset allocations go up dramatically, making them very fluid to get-in-and-out-of. Stocks, you might get trapped in going to the bottom like in 08/09, with no buyers.

Right now I'm playing UVXY cause I love hedging with VIX futures. I made 16% today Managed to buy in UVXY full-portfolio () last week during the 3 days 60-handle rally on SPX, and got UVXY for half-off. Expecting to make to make up to a double in this next leg down with it.

And I agree with the erase of all gains, but I'd go further and say we start the next down leg (with panic selling) to 1265-1215. Then the potential for a ST tradeable bottom before the next leg up (potentially to 1350-1400).

My email has my full name and I keep that for business purposes, but feel free to shoot me a PM like the other members do.
Very nice I made 11% today
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Hisam135i is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      06-11-2012, 03:46 PM   #997
r0wr
New Member
 
Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Posts: 5
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
My email has my full name and I keep that for business purposes, but feel free to shoot me a PM like the other members do.
I'm up around 13% just as well today. I can't PM until I have more post, lol.
r0wr is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-11-2012, 05:42 PM   #998
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hisam135i View Post
Very nice I made 11% today
After-hours pricing has it at 19% up now for today. I should just call it quits here, this is like 5 years of interest in a bank

Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
I'm up around 13% just as well today. I can't PM until I have more post, lol.
Yeah, I've always wondered why you never had any posts. Did you make an account just to comment in this thread?
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      06-11-2012, 05:48 PM   #999
BayMoWe335
Major
 
Drives: 2010 E92 335i 6MT
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: US

Posts: 1,387
iTrader: (0)

Sold AAPL at 585...pretty standard it would fade after the event was over and no iPhone 5. Did anyone really think it would be announced there?

85% cash currently.

Thought we'd get a rally, but I don't mind much. Give me lower prices so I can get in when the Dow is 6,000.
BayMoWe335 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-11-2012, 09:34 PM   #1000
r0wr
New Member
 
Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Posts: 5
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
After-hours pricing has it at 19% up now for today. I should just call it quits here, this is like 5 years of interest in a bank



Yeah, I've always wondered why you never had any posts. Did you make an account just to comment in this thread?
Well I've been a lurker for over 5 years of e90post/OT section but I decided to make an account to give my .02 cents and support for the bears
r0wr is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-12-2012, 02:18 AM   #1001
r0wr
New Member
 
Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Posts: 5
iTrader: (0)

Also, bearish engulfing on the daily today.. so we SHOULD have a green day tomorrow. Vanity, do you agree?
r0wr is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-12-2012, 02:39 AM   #1002
Hisam135i
Major
 
Hisam135i's Avatar
 
Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

Posts: 1,157
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Sorry bears.
Name:  LOL.png
Views: 155
Size:  69.1 KB

Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Also, bearish engulfing on the daily today.. so we SHOULD have a green day tomorrow. Vanity, do you agree?
Agreed, MACD indicating a rise tomorrow. But hey, thats just one indicator. Futures are also currently trading +68 on DOW, +6 On S&P, and +14 on Nasdaq.
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Hisam135i is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      06-12-2012, 09:34 AM   #1003
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Also, bearish engulfing on the daily today.. so we SHOULD have a green day tomorrow. Vanity, do you agree?
Didnt see this message till just now. It would appear that way, but I have no real playable uptrend on my outlooks so these are all just dead cat bounces to me. Dow is +24 right now and my short is +3%. That's one of the nice things about VIX and VIX Futures, the positive correlation sometimes with the indexes you can win on both up and down days.


Update: spoke too soon. Looks like bulls are trying to regain 1318-1320 support line. Sitting at 1319 right now, we would need a strong close above 1320 for this to be a strong reversal. Otherwise, I'm going to remain full short as I'm up 18% from yesterday and only down -4% so far, and my downside risk for going long would be ~ 100 handles on SPX.

Double Update (9:39am PST, 12:39 ET): Looks like today is indeed a dead cat bounce. Indexes are bouncing up to 1320 resistance and fell back down. A strong close around 1325 would have me re-evaluate the situation more. I doubt we have anything that will make us rally another 50 handles though. Also, 18 spanish banks downgraded again (does it ever stop? ), Italy/Spain's borrowing costs are going through the roof, and Greek elections are coming up. Still standing by in Full-Short mode. DOW is up +100 atm and my shorts are minus 1 cent. Good position, imo. Fun week.

What are you guys up to?
__________________

Last edited by Vanity; 06-12-2012 at 11:42 AM.
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      06-12-2012, 12:23 PM   #1004
Hisam135i
Major
 
Hisam135i's Avatar
 
Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

Posts: 1,157
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity
Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Also, bearish engulfing on the daily today.. so we SHOULD have a green day tomorrow. Vanity, do you agree?
Didnt see this message till just now. It would appear that way, but I have no real playable uptrend on my outlooks so these are all just dead cat bounces to me. Dow is +24 right now and my short is +3%. That's one of the nice things about VIX and VIX Futures, the positive correlation sometimes with the indexes you can win on both up and down days.


Update: spoke too soon. Looks like bulls are trying to regain 1318-1320 support line. Sitting at 1319 right now, we would need a strong close above 1320 for this to be a strong reversal. Otherwise, I'm going to remain full short as I'm up 18% from yesterday and only down -4% so far, and my downside risk for going long would be ~ 100 handles on SPX.

Double Update (9:39am PST, 12:39 ET): Looks like today is indeed a dead cat bounce. Indexes are bouncing up to 1320 resistance and fell back down. A strong close around 1325 would have me re-evaluate the situation more. I doubt we have anything that will make us rally another 50 handles though. Also, 18 spanish banks downgraded again (does it ever stop? ), Italy/Spain's borrowing costs are going through the roof, and Greek elections are coming up. Still standing by in Full-Short mode. DOW is up +100 atm and my shorts are minus 1 cent. Good position, imo. Fun week.

What are you guys up to?
I'm also taking today as a buy in position on some puts (which are already making money). What are your thoughts going into this weekend I don't plan on holding anything through it, the market could go either on Greece..
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Hisam135i is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      06-12-2012, 12:29 PM   #1005
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hisam135i View Post
I'm also taking today as a buy in position on some puts (which are already making money). What are your thoughts going into this weekend I don't plan on holding anything through it, the market could go either on Greece..
We are definitely biased to the downside, but there's always 3 different scenarios on the table at all times. Right now I think if we break 1305, we're headed to 1265-1215 (maybe even 1200), and from there we can analyze whether or not we're looking at a big 2nd leg up, or a crash down. If we break 1335, we might be headed to 1420 (but no new high made, but certainly has the potential to be damn close imo. A mother of all kahuna crashes would be setup for a major short up here, in this scenario).

1305-1335 trading range for now imo, with a bias to the downside but anything is possible as always. We have expirations and dividends this Friday. Might be a push higher on that alone into the weekend, not necessarily to be interpreted as a speculation on Greek election results. Sam I hope you suck up all this information and become the most successful kid in your Undergrad
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      06-12-2012, 02:46 PM   #1006
Hisam135i
Major
 
Hisam135i's Avatar
 
Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

Posts: 1,157
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
We are definitely biased to the downside, but there's always 3 different scenarios on the table at all times. Right now I think if we break 1305, we're headed to 1265-1215 (maybe even 1200), and from there we can analyze whether or not we're looking at a big 2nd leg up, or a crash down. If we break 1335, we might be headed to 1420 (but no new high made, but certainly has the potential to be damn close imo. A mother of all kahuna crashes would be setup for a major short up here, in this scenario).

1305-1335 trading range for now imo, with a bias to the downside but anything is possible as always. We have expirations and dividends this Friday. Might be a push higher on that alone into the weekend, not necessarily to be interpreted as a speculation on Greek election results. Sam I hope you suck up all this information and become the most successful kid in your Undergrad
Thanks I appreciate that And I will definitely keep an eye out for any signals before this weekend (in FX markets)
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Hisam135i is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      06-12-2012, 03:20 PM   #1007
Hisam135i
Major
 
Hisam135i's Avatar
 
Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

Posts: 1,157
iTrader: (0)

Looks like we are approaching 1st level of resistance at 1327, hopefully we will get a bounce down tomorrow!
Name:  spx1.jpg
Views: 117
Size:  327.9 KB
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Hisam135i is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      06-13-2012, 02:25 PM   #1008
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Was day trading today cause the first half had been boring action. Day traded enough to average in my position down, then Managed to short in +/- 10 points within the market top of the day around 9:30 am ET. Yeah! Really good day today
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      06-14-2012, 02:37 PM   #1009
scorcherjf
Captain
 
scorcherjf's Avatar
 
Drives: 2008 135i
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: NJ

Posts: 769
iTrader: (2)

Garage List
2008 135i  [0.00]
Your good day might've just ended haha... anyway, elevator down for me now =)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Was day trading today cause the first half had been boring action. Day traded enough to average in my position down, then Managed to short in +/- 10 points within the market top of the day around 9:30 am ET. Yeah! Really good day today
__________________
scorcherjf is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-14-2012, 02:54 PM   #1010
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by scorcherjf View Post
Your good day might've just ended haha... anyway, elevator down for me now =)
I wonder if this bank rumor before the elections is so large players can unload. Should be interesting to see if 1335 is broken strongly though.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      06-14-2012, 06:48 PM   #1011
BayMoWe335
Major
 
Drives: 2010 E92 335i 6MT
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: US

Posts: 1,387
iTrader: (0)

Seems like there are more than a few in this thread that make money every day...I guess they just don't post when they lose. Understandable. Don't take this post the wrong way. I pretty much stick to posting postitive news about my own investments, but I don't pretend I know what's going to happen on a daily basis.

But seriously, I like reading and contributing to the thread, but there seems to be quite a bit of "See, I told you this would happen" going on. Veteran investors know it's hard to stay in this game, let alone beat the averages consistently.

Just curious...how much are people investing? $1,000 portfolio? $10,000? $100,000? $500,000, $1,000,000+?

I always find it interesting that people talk percentages. "I am up 80% on this or that." Well, if I were investing $1,000, I'd be up 80% some of the time because I'm taking more risk. Buying 500 shares of BZH to bet home builders will surprise doesn't really get me excited or show that you are a good investor. I've got a co-worker that's always talking about doubling his $200 investment. Big deal. Would you bet the same if it was $20,000? Or the best of all time, play money investors. This completely takes 90% of investing skill out of the equation...psychology.

I somehow doubt people buying leveraged ETFs are investing any significant money on such a speculative bet. If you make money, good for you...but scale matters.

Last edited by BayMoWe335; 06-14-2012 at 06:54 PM.
BayMoWe335 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      06-14-2012, 08:52 PM   #1012
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Seems like there are more than a few in this thread that make money every day...I guess they just don't post when they lose. Understandable. Don't take this post the wrong way. I pretty much stick to posting postitive news about my own investments, but I don't pretend I know what's going to happen on a daily basis.

But seriously, I like reading and contributing to the thread, but there seems to be quite a bit of "See, I told you this would happen" going on. Veteran investors know it's hard to stay in this game, let alone beat the averages consistently.

Just curious...how much are people investing? $1,000 portfolio? $10,000? $100,000? $500,000, $1,000,000+?

I always find it interesting that people talk percentages. "I am up 80% on this or that." Well, if I were investing $1,000, I'd be up 80% some of the time because I'm taking more risk. Buying 500 shares of BZH to bet home builders will surprise doesn't really get me excited or show that you are a good investor. I've got a co-worker that's always talking about doubling his $200 investment. Big deal. Would you bet the same if it was $20,000? Or the best of all time, play money investors. This completely takes 90% of investing skill out of the equation...psychology.

I somehow doubt people buying leveraged ETFs are investing any significant money on such a speculative bet. If you make money, good for you...but scale matters.
I'm not sure how anyone else here can not take this post the wrong way. You come in here only to devalue us, right? When we are wrong, it's clearly evident. But when we say the times we were right, we mention them, and we were right. This thread has been pretty accurate for the last little while, and we have been doing really good with our trades. Today was my first hit in about 2 months. As for investment size, I trade a minimum of 6 figures in my ETFs. So I put my money where my mouth is. Where is yours? I shared my portfolio size, care to share yours?

Investing differently with $20,000? Is that supposed to be large enough to change our investment strategies? I make and lose that in minutes. Today, I lost 5 figures for sleeping in (what a dumb mistake on my part today. I had been so tired all week I slept in). That is far, far, far, from making a large dent in my portfolio.

We talk percentages because this thread is built of a bunch of different traders. I get tons of PMs from other members who are just looking to start out with $5,000. Percentages is all this game is about anyways. It equalizes us all. I'm up 63% for the month. You?

If I took your post the wrong way, then disregard this response. But I'm tired of the random members that come in and knock this thread with "guess you were wrong" comments, when they don't even bother contributing. Realize we contribute our thoughts here free of charge, and other members and I are always welcoming new beginners and giving them direction. Posts like yours are so demeaning and pointless, IMO. Is isn't a portfolio comparison contest. This thread has been about, and always been about, analyzing the markets. No one cares how much you have trading; can you analyze the global events and price action? Cause that's all we care about here.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:04 AM.




e90post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST