[kmarei]

Originally Posted by Templar

True. I agree with why the polls and predictions are there, but there have been surprises in the past. In a race this close, I just don't trust the polls to be as accurate as you'd think.

I'll wait until tomorrow to see what happens

exciting for us, nerve wracking for them

i know i'd hate to be either of the 2 candidates today!
i am sure neither candidate will get any sleep tonight

may the best man win

[mspeasl]

Originally Posted by kmarei

exciting for us, nerve wracking for them

i know i'd hate to be either of the 2 candidates today!
i am sure neither candidate will get any sleep tonight

may the best man win

I agree 100%. But instead of the best man winning, lets pray that the country wins in the end.

[rgrovr]

Something or someone will be VERY wrong tomorrow. The toplines of most polls (and what the aggregrate pollsters capture) show virtually tied or Obama within a MOE lead or Romney within a MOE lead.

But the internals are absolutely brutal for the President. The gender gap is nullified or Romney +1, the Independents are wholesale lost to the President in comparison to 2008 where he won them by 6pts and now is losing in some of these polls by 20pt+!

Usually, every election cycle - the mantra is whoever wins independents, wins the election. Well Romney is running away with them. So how can the toplines show a virtual deadheat when the internals show a blowout?

If you believe that 2012 turnout will be the same as 2008 (D+7) - I'm of that camp that considers anyone crazy if they do so. Enthusiasm is unquestionably on the Republican side and nothing has changed since 2010 when the landslide for Republicans had R+5 tilt.

Once you see it that way, it makes sense how CNN can put out a poll with the race tied, terrible internals for the incumbent but a D+11 tilt on the makeup of the race. I will kiss my monkey's uncle if tomorrow's turnout ends up D+11 which would be more than the historic 2008 campaign and a repudiation of 2010. That's crazy talk.

[smohr33]

Originally Posted by xbook

Obama 307
Rmoney 230

Originally Posted by BKsBimmer

Electoral college:

Obama 306
Romney 231

You guys may want to recheck your math, you seem to have come up short

[Templar]

Originally Posted by smohr33

You guys may want to recheck your math, you seem to have come up short

[incantana]

Landslide Romney. Liberal media is in denial.

[E92TTKING]

Originally Posted by incantana

Landslide Romney. Liberal media is in denial.

+1

[Solonng]

+2

[JMX328]

Purely a prediction, but this is how I think the result will look like:




Ohio is the center point. Early voting information is being release, and currently:

Obama is down 154k votes from 2008.
Romney is up 108k from 2008 (McCain, obviously).
Obama's margin of victory in Ohio was 262k.

That puts them squarely tied. However, the issue for Obama is that Republican enthusiasm is up sharply than in 2008. Independents are heavily favoring Romney over Obama. And finally, Democrats are less enthused and lesser likely to vote.

A CNN poll (I can't find the link, otherwise I'd post it) has Romney up 6-7% in Ohio for those voting ON election day (not early, not mail, but physically voting). If that's the case, Obama is in serious trouble in Ohio.

Also major issue is that most major polling outfits are modeling voter turnout based off 2008 numbers (with D 5-13+). Democrats are generally 2-3 points ahead in actual voting. This spells another major problem for Obama.

I predict it will repeat 1980 (not in terms of electoral votes, but in terms of polls; 1980 had Carter winning by 2.7% on the final polling going into election day), and Romney will win.

Do I want Romney to win? Absolutely. Until the debates, however, I had my doubts. After that, and after his surge, I became more optimistic. Having reviewed polling data from almost every source, I have a distinct feeling the pollsters are out of touch with the electorate, in judging turnout.

But, it's all moot point - we'll have to see how it all goes down later today.

[Vertigo//SD]

.

[kmarei]

that's probably more optomistic than obamas own guess

[kmarei]

one question
if the liberal media really is skewing the polls to show obama ahead
doesn't that actually hurt him?
if i am a democrat, and i hear my guy is ahead in all polls
i'll probably sit on my ass and do nothing, since i know he'll probably win anyway

on the other hand if i knew he was behind, i'd go vote to help him out

[incantana]

Originally Posted by kmarei

one question
if the liberal media really is skewing the polls to show obama ahead
doesn't that actually hurt him?
if i am a democrat, and i hear my guy is ahead in all polls
i'll probably sit on my ass and do nothing, since i know he'll probably win anyway

on the other hand if i knew he was behind, i'd go vote to help him out

No. People who have decided to vote are going to vote. Those who have decided not to vote will not vote. Historically a portion of undecided likely voters will choose who they think is going to win. If the media makes it seem as if Obama will win, people will tend to vote for him if they aren't sure of their vote. People innately want to be on the winning side.

[rgrovr]

We'll get a feel soon when the early vote counts start coming in.. If Romney outperforms McCain and Obama underperforms (in Ohio at least).. its pretty much over.

[TMNT]

I think Obama wins Ohio, Penn, and 1 of Colorado or NV
Romney wins FL & Virginia

Which would equate to a close Obama re-election.

[rgrovr]

Originally Posted by TMNT

I think Obama wins Ohio, Penn, and 1 of Colorado or NV
Romney wins FL & Virginia

Which would equate to a close Obama re-election.

CO early vote is already in and Repubs won it 688K to 653K compared to 2008 when Obama won the early vote handidly. You should take that one off your list imo.

[kmarei]

Originally Posted by rgrovr

CO early vote is already in and Repubs won it 688K to 653K compared to 2008 when Obama won the early vote handidly. You should take that one off your list imo.

never expected obama to get CO
all the polls were leaning romney
i do think obama will get ohio, wisconsin, PA and then he only needs one more state
romney will get va and fl
but he will not win ALL the swing states, which he needs to win the whole thing

[Seminole]

Not to derail the thread, but anyone see what's been going on in Philly? Apparently a bunch of pro-Republican poll watchers were forced out of polling areas, one polling site had a huge mural of Obama painted on the wall in the voting room, and there are Black Panthers standing outside certain sites as well.

Here is the mural:



After a judge ordered it to be completely covered up:



I know I got the picture and info from Fox News, but I looked for another website to use as well, but CNN, NBC and ABC have zero articles about it on their home page. It was obviously a real issue though since in both the case of the Republican observers and the mural Philly judges stepped in and issued court orders.

More news that people are being forced to fill out provisional ballots in Philly (which are counted later then today) http://www.citypaper.net/blogs/naked...e-numbers.html.

[incantana]

There was a polling station that had republican ads on the walls too....wait no there wasnt.

[rgrovr]

Ohio early votes down in Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Franklin counties (That's Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus for you non OH folks) per the Cook political report. Kerry/Obama counties down -4.1% while Bush/McCain counties up 14.3% in early voting. That's great for Romney but it still will come down to turnout. (link)

[shivaswrath]

this is stressing me out...I think Romney will take it though...

[pt]

FWIW, I figure Obama will eke out 275 or 276 EV's. It'll be interesting to see how this actually plays out in reality now that votes are actually coming in.