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      11-05-2012, 02:17 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarei View Post
exciting for us, nerve wracking for them

i know i'd hate to be either of the 2 candidates today!
i am sure neither candidate will get any sleep tonight

may the best man win
I agree 100%. But instead of the best man winning, lets pray that the country wins in the end.
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      11-05-2012, 03:24 PM   #24
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Something or someone will be VERY wrong tomorrow. The toplines of most polls (and what the aggregrate pollsters capture) show virtually tied or Obama within a MOE lead or Romney within a MOE lead.

But the internals are absolutely brutal for the President. The gender gap is nullified or Romney +1, the Independents are wholesale lost to the President in comparison to 2008 where he won them by 6pts and now is losing in some of these polls by 20pt+!

Usually, every election cycle - the mantra is whoever wins independents, wins the election. Well Romney is running away with them. So how can the toplines show a virtual deadheat when the internals show a blowout?

If you believe that 2012 turnout will be the same as 2008 (D+7) - I'm of that camp that considers anyone crazy if they do so. Enthusiasm is unquestionably on the Republican side and nothing has changed since 2010 when the landslide for Republicans had R+5 tilt.

Once you see it that way, it makes sense how CNN can put out a poll with the race tied, terrible internals for the incumbent but a D+11 tilt on the makeup of the race. I will kiss my monkey's uncle if tomorrow's turnout ends up D+11 which would be more than the historic 2008 campaign and a repudiation of 2010. That's crazy talk.
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      11-05-2012, 04:10 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xbook View Post
Obama 307
Rmoney 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by BKsBimmer View Post
Electoral college:

Obama 306
Romney 231
You guys may want to recheck your math, you seem to have come up short
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      11-05-2012, 04:22 PM   #26
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Quote:
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You guys may want to recheck your math, you seem to have come up short
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      11-05-2012, 04:24 PM   #27
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Landslide Romney. Liberal media is in denial.
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      11-05-2012, 11:34 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by incantana
Landslide Romney. Liberal media is in denial.
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      11-06-2012, 12:33 AM   #29
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      11-06-2012, 04:32 AM   #30
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Purely a prediction, but this is how I think the result will look like:




Ohio is the center point. Early voting information is being release, and currently:

Obama is down 154k votes from 2008.
Romney is up 108k from 2008 (McCain, obviously).
Obama's margin of victory in Ohio was 262k.

That puts them squarely tied. However, the issue for Obama is that Republican enthusiasm is up sharply than in 2008. Independents are heavily favoring Romney over Obama. And finally, Democrats are less enthused and lesser likely to vote.

A CNN poll (I can't find the link, otherwise I'd post it) has Romney up 6-7% in Ohio for those voting ON election day (not early, not mail, but physically voting). If that's the case, Obama is in serious trouble in Ohio.

Also major issue is that most major polling outfits are modeling voter turnout based off 2008 numbers (with D 5-13+). Democrats are generally 2-3 points ahead in actual voting. This spells another major problem for Obama.

I predict it will repeat 1980 (not in terms of electoral votes, but in terms of polls; 1980 had Carter winning by 2.7% on the final polling going into election day), and Romney will win.

Do I want Romney to win? Absolutely. Until the debates, however, I had my doubts. After that, and after his surge, I became more optimistic. Having reviewed polling data from almost every source, I have a distinct feeling the pollsters are out of touch with the electorate, in judging turnout.

But, it's all moot point - we'll have to see how it all goes down later today.
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      11-06-2012, 09:03 AM   #31
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      11-06-2012, 10:10 AM   #32
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that's probably more optomistic than obamas own guess
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      11-06-2012, 10:12 AM   #33
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one question
if the liberal media really is skewing the polls to show obama ahead
doesn't that actually hurt him?
if i am a democrat, and i hear my guy is ahead in all polls
i'll probably sit on my ass and do nothing, since i know he'll probably win anyway

on the other hand if i knew he was behind, i'd go vote to help him out
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      11-06-2012, 12:04 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarei View Post
one question
if the liberal media really is skewing the polls to show obama ahead
doesn't that actually hurt him?
if i am a democrat, and i hear my guy is ahead in all polls
i'll probably sit on my ass and do nothing, since i know he'll probably win anyway

on the other hand if i knew he was behind, i'd go vote to help him out
No. People who have decided to vote are going to vote. Those who have decided not to vote will not vote. Historically a portion of undecided likely voters will choose who they think is going to win. If the media makes it seem as if Obama will win, people will tend to vote for him if they aren't sure of their vote. People innately want to be on the winning side.
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      11-06-2012, 12:09 PM   #35
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We'll get a feel soon when the early vote counts start coming in.. If Romney outperforms McCain and Obama underperforms (in Ohio at least).. its pretty much over.
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      11-06-2012, 03:02 PM   #36
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I think Obama wins Ohio, Penn, and 1 of Colorado or NV
Romney wins FL & Virginia

Which would equate to a close Obama re-election.
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      11-06-2012, 03:40 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TMNT View Post
I think Obama wins Ohio, Penn, and 1 of Colorado or NV
Romney wins FL & Virginia

Which would equate to a close Obama re-election.
CO early vote is already in and Repubs won it 688K to 653K compared to 2008 when Obama won the early vote handidly. You should take that one off your list imo.
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      11-06-2012, 03:45 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rgrovr View Post
CO early vote is already in and Repubs won it 688K to 653K compared to 2008 when Obama won the early vote handidly. You should take that one off your list imo.
never expected obama to get CO
all the polls were leaning romney
i do think obama will get ohio, wisconsin, PA and then he only needs one more state
romney will get va and fl
but he will not win ALL the swing states, which he needs to win the whole thing
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      11-06-2012, 03:53 PM   #39
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Not to derail the thread, but anyone see what's been going on in Philly? Apparently a bunch of pro-Republican poll watchers were forced out of polling areas, one polling site had a huge mural of Obama painted on the wall in the voting room, and there are Black Panthers standing outside certain sites as well.

Here is the mural:



After a judge ordered it to be completely covered up:



I know I got the picture and info from Fox News, but I looked for another website to use as well, but CNN, NBC and ABC have zero articles about it on their home page. It was obviously a real issue though since in both the case of the Republican observers and the mural Philly judges stepped in and issued court orders.

More news that people are being forced to fill out provisional ballots in Philly (which are counted later then today) http://www.citypaper.net/blogs/naked...e-numbers.html.
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      11-06-2012, 04:31 PM   #40
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There was a polling station that had republican ads on the walls too....wait no there wasnt.
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      11-06-2012, 05:16 PM   #41
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Ohio early votes down in Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Franklin counties (That's Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus for you non OH folks) per the Cook political report. Kerry/Obama counties down -4.1% while Bush/McCain counties up 14.3% in early voting. That's great for Romney but it still will come down to turnout. (link)
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      11-06-2012, 06:20 PM   #42
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this is stressing me out...I think Romney will take it though...
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      11-06-2012, 06:24 PM   #43
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FWIW, I figure Obama will eke out 275 or 276 EV's. It'll be interesting to see how this actually plays out in reality now that votes are actually coming in.
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      11-06-2012, 06:59 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarei View Post
one question
if the liberal media really is skewing the polls to show obama ahead
doesn't that actually hurt him?
if i am a democrat, and i hear my guy is ahead in all polls
i'll probably sit on my ass and do nothing, since i know he'll probably win anyway

on the other hand if i knew he was behind, i'd go vote to help him out
you're 100% right!

Thus my conclusion, is that they just arent aware of it. Keep in mind most of these media outlets are located in very very liberal areas. It would be bizarre to them if it was even a 1-1 ratio, let alone republican turnout being higher.

Dont get me wrong, the republican turnout vs democrat turnout wont be what it was in the midterm however, it will be significantly closer to the midterm turnout ratio than the 2008 turnout ratio. Obama vs Bush (anyone with "R" next to their name) was an easy one to see the turnout, while the midterm was also pretty easy to spot if you lived outside of NYC or the liberal media.

This will be a very close race, i think. Obama has a HUGE following especially considering the state of the economy etc. We know where his base stands and where they will always stand. Same goes for the tea party crowd... It didnt matter if Obama did a good job with the economy, those people wouldnt agree with the mechanism.

SO that leaves us with 3rd party, independents, and those who voted in 08 for not Bush and 12 for Romney/not Obama (dont see many McCain voters going the other way now).

3rd party- Obama has lost a SIGNIFICANT amount of the youth vote to the libertarian party. Im in school now and was in 08, there wasnt this kind of interest in 3rd party then as now. wars, legalization of weed, etc. all hit hard with the youth. Not to mention those that graduated during the recession (again like i did) might not be so happy with what the reality of the job market currently is, vs what was thought to be.

Independents- there will likely be a trade of some Mccain to some Obama and vice versa, however based on most internals we see the biggest share going from Obama to Romney which i think is pretty much accurate.


The real question will be the breakdown of the EC. Popular vote will go Romney and this much is very clear. The EC however is a different story that is being written as we speak.

To answer the OP i would prefer a Romney win and i think its a strong possibility however, its very hard to tell. I would say its a near tossup with edge going to Romney.

Think about it this way, if you were to just pick a channel at random without knowing anything about politics or browsed Reddit politics, equally unaware. One under those perimeters would likely see an Obama sweep. I believe thats the phenomenon going on right now, perceived information based on limited interactions create difference between reality and painted picture.


P.S. 1000 Posts!!!! haha

Last edited by txz4; 11-06-2012 at 07:05 PM.
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