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      07-08-2013, 11:25 AM   #1607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inspired View Post
The odds are always against you in any trades or else there wouldn't be NYSE. Just like how the odds will always be against you in the casino or else they wouldn't be a multi-billion dollar industry. With that said, day trading, just like any other type of trading requires a strategy and a system. I don't just enter any trade without any technical analysis beforehand.

I started out as a longer term investor then slowly moved onto swing trading. Then I used my technical analysis skills to day trade.
See I disagree with that mindset. Historically, the odds are in your favor. Again, I’ll cite the S&P historical average as the reasoning behind that statement.

I think a better statement would be something like “Everything carries risk (inflation, market, re-investment, etc). Historically, the odds are greatly in your favor with a “buy and hold” investment strategy. With that said, when you shorten your time horizon, increase your velocity, and/or take on more risk, those variables begin to heavily weigh against the likelihood that your investments will appreciate in value.”

Humans are horrible investors by nature. We want to get in when things are good, and get out when things go south. We also have a habit of getting greedy: I’ve earned 9% a year, maybe if I do “x” or “y” I can increase that to 12% a year?

I believe in a goals-based investment strategy. To me, that’s the most quantifiable and proven strategy.
Example: I have $100k right now. How do I turn that into $1mm in 30 years?

1.) I build a roadmap. It sounds cheesy, but it’s a way to quantify your progress to reaching your goals.
2.) For instance, I know that I need to average an 8% annual return in order to meet my goal.
3.) In order to stay on track, it sometimes means lowering your risk in bull markets. It’s always good to stay ahead of your goal. However, it’s never good to take on more risk than you need to.
4.)Goals based investing really helps to take the emotion out of investing. If you get too far ahead, you lower your beta (risk), if you get too far behind on your goal, you know that you need to take on more risk.
5.)Of course, I supplement this strategy with making investment decisions based on market conditions and research. No one has a crystal ball, but you can make “educated guesses” that will increase your likelihood of success.

I constantly get asked “What kind of return can you get me?” or someone will say “I was up 50% last year.” I think many people have made that mistake just in this thread alone.

Those comments mean nothing. I always respond with something like “My goal is to make you as much money as possible, while you sleep peacefully at night not worrying about your portfolio.” Everyone wants a “ten bagger” (Peter Lynch reference), but how many people are comfortable with the possibility of losing all their money on that same investment?

The best investors aren’t bragging about their returns. They’re bragging about their alphas and shape ratios. To put that into layman’s terms, the best investors are the ones have a greater risk/reward ratio and are making more money with less risk than their benchmarks.
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      07-09-2013, 12:42 PM   #1608
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up we go as expected!..we will be approaching new highs soon.
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      07-10-2013, 10:28 AM   #1609
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Figured I'd pass this along for you anyone who might be interested:

Free download of:
Julie Dahlquist and Richard J. Bauer's Technical Analysis of Gaps: Identifying Profitable Gaps for Trading eBook.

http://dealnews.com/Dahlquist-Techni...ee/784473.html
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      07-10-2013, 10:48 AM   #1610
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Guys,

Please enjoy the last bits of this 5 year rally...new ballgame to start T-minus 3-6 months!...we are at Defcon 2 right now...
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      07-10-2013, 10:56 AM   #1611
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Guys,

Please enjoy the last bits of this 5 year rally...new ballgame to start T-minus 3-6 months!...we are at Defcon 2 right now...
I say somewhere in September-October is when things get a little rough. November and December will be stagnant, January-February will be a rally, and after that I'm very uncertain.

Not timestamping it. Just a pure guess based on several factors.
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      07-10-2013, 11:18 AM   #1612
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Already sold half my portfolio..will probably empty out the rest next month for a down payment on my house.
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      07-10-2013, 06:31 PM   #1613
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Looks like the bulls are going to have a hayday tomorrow. PM's are going to go ballistic too based on futures.
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      07-10-2013, 09:44 PM   #1614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kwando View Post
Already sold half my portfolio..will probably empty out the rest next month for a down payment on my house.
I'm liquidating as well. Was hoping to buy a 911 next year, but BBRY put a little damper on that.
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      07-10-2013, 09:51 PM   #1615
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i'm probably out until at least the end of the year. the picture's too fuzzy, and i need a vacation. at this point more money would just mean a larger bank balance, but a huge loss would piss me off.
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      07-11-2013, 08:44 AM   #1616
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Did someone say we were going to make new highs again a week ago when many were calling for lower lows?....
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      07-11-2013, 10:24 AM   #1617
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Strong rally this morning =)
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      07-11-2013, 11:32 AM   #1618
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Did someone say we were going to make new highs again a week ago when many were calling for lower lows?....
The educated and disciplined investor always comes out ahead of the emotional investor.

I am right there with you at this point. I made similar posts about the same time you did in assuming these short term dips would be followed by a strong rally towards 1700+
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      07-11-2013, 03:44 PM   #1619
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandomHero View Post
The educated and disciplined investor always comes out ahead of the emotional investor.

I am right there with you at this point. I made similar posts about the same time you did in assuming these short term dips would be followed by a strong rally towards 1700+

But I have been here for 2 years.......we will make new highs in weak fashion.
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      07-12-2013, 12:35 AM   #1620
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I like BYD in China. Warren Buffet has a stake in it. With news like this coming out BYD should do well. Recently it took a dive to around $22.50 HKD which I believe was a great time to have gotten in on this stock.

China will be pushing people very hard to buy electric cars and already they are using a bunch of electric taxis in Shenzhen and other cities of which are made by BYD. From what I have heard is that Shanghai,Shenzhen and Beijing will be using these taxis along with Buses. Exports to the US and Europe are also picking up for their electric buses.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100879726?__s...na%20Plans%20t

http://www.google.com/finance?q=HKG%...UZCqDIKhkAXzZw
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      07-12-2013, 10:03 PM   #1621
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anyone know what happened to bernie lo on cnbcw? what a dumbass.

i'm reminded of allison flanaghan. google does have its limits. it's like she never existed. wow.

Last edited by amanda hor$t; 07-12-2013 at 11:11 PM.
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      07-16-2013, 12:52 PM   #1622
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as expected, we made the new weak high few days ago..we go down for awhile now.
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      07-16-2013, 02:24 PM   #1623
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TSLA to GS: " fark you"...
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      07-16-2013, 05:09 PM   #1624
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
TSLA to GS: " fark you"...
I actually came into this thread with the sole intention of citing what Tesla did today. Bad day for some of you.

-Biggest one day loss since January 2012
-4.3x the daily average trading volume for options
-Goldman Sachs posted a new 6-month price target at $84/share (up from their previous $61, but still much lower).

I'm predicting a rough week for them based on many of the July put contracts expiring this Friday.

They report their second quarter results on August 7th which should be a fine day too.
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      07-17-2013, 08:41 AM   #1625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandomHero View Post
I actually came into this thread with the sole intention of citing what Tesla did today. Bad day for some of you.

-Biggest one day loss since January 2012
-4.3x the daily average trading volume for options
-Goldman Sachs posted a new 6-month price target at $84/share (up from their previous $61, but still much lower).

I'm predicting a rough week for them based on many of the July put contracts expiring this Friday.

They report their second quarter results on August 7th which should be a fine day too.
What do you mean by "fine day"? I'm short TSLA.
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      07-17-2013, 08:57 AM   #1626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSUSMU View Post
What do you mean by "fine day"? I'm short TSLA.
I couldn't tell if that was good or bad either lol.

YHOO having a great morning.
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      07-17-2013, 11:19 AM   #1627
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSUSMU View Post
What do you mean by "fine day"? I'm short TSLA.
I meant to type "fun." My apologies.

And I'm not attempting to predict an outcome one way or another. I rarely trade individual equities. However, Tesla's fair market value is peanuts compared to what it's currently trading at. While I respect that share price in the secondary market is solely based on supply/demand, I see a big correction happening unless Tesla posts phenomenal sales growth.

Again, you'll rarely (if at all) ever see me make a "timestamp" on something. What I do for a living is entirely different from day trading and other high velocity investing.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Kwando View Post
I couldn't tell if that was good or bad either lol.

YHOO having a great morning.
Again, it wasn't meant to be either, but with Tesla's share price has an extremely high volatility. Any new information good or bad seems to have a significant effect on its share price. In comparison, when Apple posted their 1st quarter results, there was very little movement in the price the following day.
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      07-22-2013, 11:33 AM   #1628
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short gold and silver as of this am.
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