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      05-17-2008, 03:38 AM   #23
GarryF
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Crazy stuff, it's looking very like Brown is going for a repeat of the last labour goverment of the late 70's, if this type of inflation isn't brought under control asap then we will be having another winter of discontent with half the country on strike.

Sad thing is we actually produce a reasonable amount of our own consumption when compared to the rest of europe, yet they still gouge us the worst, it's time that fuel duty was changed from being % based to flat rate based, atm the cost is 30p/litre+ 70p tax, so if the fuel price doubles we should only pay 1.30

How on earth can a goverment budget the economy when they suddenly have all these extra billions rolling in.

/rant on
Fact is though the country is stone cold broke, the goverment have borrowed far too much and also spent far too much 5 years ago when things were doing well, there's 100billion borrowing off the books in PPI and another 100billion in Northern Rock, and lets not mention the massive pensions black hole.

We've been sold spin for the last 10 years about spend today and worry about it tomorrow, now we're in for 20+ years spending off the debt for the wild part Blair/Brown threw.

And people talk about low unemployment, it's such BS!!! There are 1million more civil servants now than in 1997, so now the goverment employs everyone to run complicated tax credit schemes, or we have 25 inspectors in each vilage going round making sure our wheely bins aren't over filled and if they are billing us 100, or having loads of people sitting in vans taxing safe road users (who are technically breaking the law)

This morning the latest spin is plastic bags, these amount for a huge 0.2% of waste yet seem to be getting 90% of press attention, M&S will happily charge for plastic bags now, but no one is shitting all over them for supply shrink wrapped veg
/Rant off

Now I feel better, country looks screwed though, Maggie Thatcher is too old to fix it this time
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      05-17-2008, 04:19 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GarryF View Post
Crazy stuff, it's looking very like Brown is going for a repeat of the last labour goverment of the late 70's, if this type of inflation isn't brought under control asap then we will be having another winter of discontent with half the country on strike.
Regardless of your political affiliations you have to recognise that crude oil prices have increased massively. There is a legitimate debate to be had on fuel taxation, but you can't ignore the fact that it was $20 a barrell in 2002 and it's $115 dollars a barrel now.



This next graph shows UK petrol price increases since 2006:



In 06 it was 95p a litre and now its around 1.11 a litre

In the same period crude oil went from $60 to $115 a barrell.

Proportionally petrol prices have increased more slowly than oil prices. That doesn't excuse the taxation issues and at current prices I think we begin to see a real argument to alter the taxation system on fuel. However, I think people have to recognise that this is in large part an issue for the world economy.
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      05-17-2008, 05:56 AM   #25
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New here but hope you don't mind me pitching in my thoughts.

There are all sorts of pressures at play here, the costs of crude, the green lobby (all too powerful as LRS said) and the stupidly crude (no pun) method of applying fuel duty on a % basis (as someone said earlier) but when you look at the overall impact of high fuel costs on every area of our lives, the present government have a lot to answer for.

For instance (and this is just my two penneth) haven't a lot of the excuses for the rising cost of crude oil been based on political instability in the middle east and didn't Blair and Bush just fan the flames of that situation with the ill-conceived actions they took during the Gulf War and in the aftermath of 911? WOMD my foot! Surely there were other ways to address both those situations and taking us to war was far from the most expedient or cost effective solution. If we ignore the effects of the credit crunch for a moment - it seems to me that both the global political and local economic costs of us trying to help America police the middle East have placed a massive and largely unnecessary burden on the UK economy and made things far more shaky than they might otherwise have been.

I heard the other day about Notts Council taxing employers/employees for the use of private parking spaces - where will it end? Will we be paying, VAT, road tax, fuel tax, insurance tax, car parked on your drive tax, car needs to be disposed of at the end of it's life tax and when finally we are all walking, cycling, riding a pony or taking the bus to work - where will the government get it's taxes from to keep all the politicians and bureaucrats in jobs and pay for their second homes and mistresses??

Party politics aside AMS would have sacked the lot of them for mis-management

I would like to live in a world free from terror, in a decent society, sensibly governed, where everyone is free to enjoy themselves within reasonable laws, where everyone pulls their weight and where everyone contributes a sensible amount to the running of the country and the benefit of our environment but right now I agree with LRS - anyone know where there's a cheap Guillotine for sale??
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      05-17-2008, 09:14 AM   #26
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I'd agree there has been a massive increase in the $ price of oil, as pointed out though this is down to 2 reasons.

1. Iraq war, ever since the price has gone up and up, why did we invade Iraq yet watch genocide in various other countries around the world without lifting a finger.

2. USA Economy, with the property collapse there, they cut intrest rates and that then caused the exchange rate to swing wildy, historically it's always been about $1.50 to the pound and until we get back to that things won't calm down imo.
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      05-17-2008, 09:14 AM   #27
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I fail to understand why oil prices are rising so fast. The 'stability' in the Middle East is really no different now to what it was in 2003, you could argue it is in fact more stable. So why are prices rising through the roof? OPEC maybe, limiting supply? So who is making all the money? Middle East Sheiks? Central Amercan Drug dealers?
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      05-17-2008, 10:01 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by peterg1965 View Post
So who is making all the money? Middle East Sheiks? Central Amercan Drug dealers?
no idea ... but i know whos making it here
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      05-17-2008, 10:39 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peterg1965 View Post
I fail to understand why oil prices are rising so fast. The 'stability' in the Middle East is really no different now to what it was in 2003, you could argue it is in fact more stable. So why are prices rising through the roof? OPEC maybe, limiting supply? So who is making all the money? Middle East Sheiks? Central Amercan Drug dealers?
The dollar is worth a lot less than it was, so oil made in the middle east costs a lot more in dollars but not so much in the local currency, so if the barrel is $100, then with exchange rate of $1.50 instead of $2.00 it would only be $75, it's more complex than that, but the exchange rate is part of the problem.

Apparently there's lots of money being speculated into fuel as well, futures and stuff which is driving the price way beyond what it should be. Like housing once it turns it'll come crashing down like a pack of cards as oil producers will be slow to cut production
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      05-17-2008, 02:19 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peterg1965 View Post
OPEC maybe, limiting supply?
OPEC have consistently stated that their oil reserves are massively larger than independent experts believe.

A cynic might imagine that they are exagerating their stocks, because it reduces the impetus for the West to find alternatives for the time when it eventually runs out.

The oil won't 'run out' suddenly it's more that the easy oil will be used up and the remainder will become more an more costly to extract. When the oil crisis looms, which it will this centrury only one country will have lots of 'easy' oil reserves left - the USA. This is because it's been buying OPEC oil and saving it's own.

Maybe OPEC is limiting supply or maybe supply is slowing because it's becoming harder to extract.
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      05-22-2008, 12:42 PM   #31
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Did anyone else here the guy on the radio 4 from "Petroleum Review" talking about the surge in oil prices and the premium on diesel?

He was saying that we may have already hit the 'peak' in oil supply for low sulphur 'light' quality crude oil, which is the one in demand for deisel production.

He then went on to say that 'peak oil' for heavy high sulphur crude could come as early as 2011 and the true 'peak oil' in terms of total supply could be 2013.

Scary stuff. For those who haven't heard the term 'peak oil' is the point at which we can no longer find enough oil reserves to match demand. From that point onward the amount of oil production will start to reduce we run out of economically viable sources altogether. So from here on in demand will outstrip supply and if it doesn't reduce that disparity will grow ever bigger.

It's what I was talking about above

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalca...o/?mod=WSJBlog

Very scary indeed. What was the plot of 'mad max' again?
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      05-22-2008, 01:08 PM   #32
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I think this article from todays times makes good reading

It indicates the root cause as the same twits that have caused the housing boom/bust, now the same is happening to oil

Here's a graph of oil prices since the 40's
http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

It's surprising to me to see in 1950 the price was $20/b, in the 70's when the oil crisis hit the barrel got up to $70/b which must be in todays money $250+, the same peak oil theory could have been applied then.

The current trend seems to follow closely on after 911 and the US reaction to it which destabilised a large region of the gulf.

There are huge reserves which only become viable with the barrel price over $50, let alone $75, if the price were to stay high for any length of time these will all come on stream, lack of refineries seems to be a big problem too.

Personally I'm convinced the current price is still just a combination of the weak dollar and speculators buying oil futures, right now it's a self fulfilling prophecy
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      05-22-2008, 02:23 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GarryF View Post
I think this article from todays times makes good reading
The 'self fulfilling prophesy' concept applies to all aspects of economics and it's why we have economic cycles. Right now we are talking ourselves into a recession, because we expect one we behave like it's coming and it does.

Likewise the expectation of higher oil prices leads to higher oil prices.

That doesn't mean that peak theory isn't in play here as well. This report was procured by the US Dept of Energy in 05.

http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-Hirs...Production.pdf

This is an extract which gives various expected dates for the peak in oil production by different sources:

Code:
Projected Date Source of Projection Background & Reference
2006-2007      Bakhitari, A.M.S. Oil Executive (Iran)1
2007-2009      Simmons, M.R. Investment banker (U.S.) 2
After 2007      Skrebowski, C. Petroleum journal editor (U.K.) 3
Before 2009    Deffeyes, K.S. Oil company geologist (ret., U.S.)4
Before 2010    Goodstein, D. Vice Provost, Cal Tech (U.S.) 5
Around 2010   Campbell, C.J. Oil geologist (ret., Ireland)6
After 2010      World Energy Council World Non-Government Org.7
2012              Pang Xiongqi Petroleum Executive (China)8
2010-2020      Laherrere, J. Oil geologist (ret., France) 9
2016              EIA nominal case DOE analysis/ information (U.S.)10
After 2020      CERA Energy consultants (U.S.) 11
2025 or later   Shell Major oil company (U.K.) 12
Kind of suggests that we are hitting the peak now. In theory it's too early for it to affect pricing dramatically, but it will in time. The kick in demand from China has to be a big factor as well
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