[- Paul -]

Anyone considering moving house recently ? - we are in the process of selling and offering on a house we like but the more I read, the more I become reticent about doing so.

EG

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7405357.stm

Your views??

[Bumps]

Interesting. Things are undoubtedly a bit grim but there's also a lot of scaremongering. And the B of E needs to force the lenders to pass on rate cuts to the customer. IMHO that won't be too long as the banks can't survive forever with no lending going on. And at the end of the day, they got themselves into this mess so it's hardly fair that we carry the can for it, but that's life.....

Personally I'd go for it as long as you're not over-stretching and have a good deposit and decent credit history. And only approach the lenders with a 'safe case' ie good deposit, repayment mortgage terms etc. And if you get rejected, go somewhere else. We did a few years back so I told the bank to go forth and multiply, and my mobile rang while I was being offered as good a deal from a rival. So I also made him sweeten the deal and went back. SItuation was different but they DO need business.

[Steve A]

im actually hoping house prices WILL fall, then ill grab a couple of bargains and wait for the market to rise again.


but to answer your question.

If you want to move into a house for the meduim to longterm (5-10yrs) that fits your requirements AND you can afford the repayments then id do it. The housing market will stableise and begin to rise in the future, it always has and i think it always will. So as a longterm investment its always a safe thing to do.

Its only a scarey time if you HAVE to move because you cant afford the repayments and/or are in negative equity then the chances are your going to be taking a big pill.

[- Paul -]

We are in a strong position as my mortgage is a very small % of the value of my home. To gain the extra we need would be the equivalent of buying a new car (to put it into perspective). I'm seeing my financial advisor on Wednesday but initial conversations with him are favourable.

My main worry is that we buy and then the market REALLY crashes - I wouldn't be in negative equity though until the new house is worth less than half of what we are offering so should still be ok.

[chrisbin]

Do it!

[Steve A]

Originally Posted by 1stnewcar

My main worry is that we buy and then the market REALLY crashes

i dont hink you should worry about this if you are going to live ther for any period as eventually the market WILL recover.

If its the house for you then get it bought and ejoy a better standard of living

[- Paul -]

Originally Posted by chrisbin

Do it!

Originally Posted by Steve A

i dont hink you should worry about this if you are going to live ther for any period as eventually the market WILL recover.

If its the house for you then get it bought and ejoy a better standard of living

Heart is ruling head at the minute so will probably move anyway!!!! Depends if we sell ours though. Thanks for the responses

[NFS]

Originally Posted by 1stnewcar

Heart is ruling head at the minute so will probably move anyway!!!! Depends if we sell ours though. Thanks for the responses

I was in two minds about moving 4 years ago, because I though the market might crash then. I'm amazed that it's held on so long.

You have to think in the long term with property. If you can withstand a 30-40% drop in house prices without hitting negative equity then you are pretty safe. Worst case, you end up with a mortgage which represents a far larger percentage of your homes value and equity that you built up through the rising market is lost. In that case you have to take the view that it was never real money anyway .. just a symptom of a fluctuating economic cycle.

In the end .. you have to get on with your life .. and if that means moving then I would do it. Make sure you can afford your mortgage payments if interest rates double as well. You never know.

[- Paul -]

Ok - so we took the plunge and put ours on the market - This didn't use to cost anything but today it cost me £470 - bloody HIPS packs.... Yet another tax if you ask me.

[squeezebm]

I've found that getting divorced helped me move house i got the small one and she got the big one

Good luck and as said the market will recover

[Steve A]

good luck ...soon to be known as nextnewhouse

[jasongtr]

my opinion is that the market will go down about 15% by the end of the year (assuming we have seen about half of that already) it defo wont crash and we wont see 30-40% drops, if you can get the morgie and pay it and are not lloking to sell on for about 3-4 years its a safe bet, negative equity only matters when you have to sell. I have been in the business for 10 years and we are still selling 60-70% of the number of houses we were this time last year.

[NFS]

Originally Posted by jasongtr

my opinion is that the market will go down about 15% by the end of the year (assuming we have seen about half of that already) it defo wont crash and we wont see 30-40% drops, if you can get the morgie and pay it and are not lloking to sell on for about 3-4 years its a safe bet, negative equity only matters when you have to sell. I have been in the business for 10 years and we are still selling 60-70% of the number of houses we were this time last year.

I reckon you've got 2 conflicting economic drivers in balance with house prices:

1. Demand is greater than supply and that will continue to keep prices high.

2. Where demand outstrips supply you should see prices continue to rise, but that hasn't happened for a few years. In effect this is because prices have hit an affordability ceiling. They have only grown to the extent that we see now because interest rates have been stable and low (6% or under) for the last 10 years. Significant interest rate changes will have a massive impact on affordability and prices.



The things that worry me about the market are this:

1. The people at the top of the tree with housing from £750K upward have benefited from the rising market. They have got there because they have built up equity and the sales of those properties are within a select group of people in a similar position. In the long term this isn't sustainable. I earn a decent salary, but I got into the market late (first bought a house 7 years ago). I've made SOME equity through house price increases, but nowhere near enough to significantly increase my position on the housing ladder. In the longer term many of the people sitting at the top of the market will pass on and their equity will be split up amongst children. There is not going to be another wave of people to replace them because anyone starting out now will never be able to build up that equity. Ultimately then the top tier will drop in value and drag the lower value end of the market down with it.

2. The housebuilders are being encouraged to increase supply by the government. Right now they have put the stops on because they see a shift in market conditions coming and they are struggling to manage funding costs.

3. Labour have, since 1996, managed to hold the economy in very stable shape, but you can't stave off the natural economic cycle for ever. We ARE going into a recession and that makes things uncertain. In an economic downturn, in theory interest rates should be kept low so we keep spending to drive the economy through the dip. That's all good, but the credit crunch is a new variable and the LIBOR (inter bank rate) has been higher than the base rate for some time, which indicates that the 'real' interest rate is higher than the bank of england rate. If interest rates DO get out of hand we will have a major correction in house prices. A £100K mortgage at 6% is £650, but at 12% it will be £1050. If we have a change of that order it will have a massive effect on affordability and we will have a crash.

Going into a recession that shouldn't happen, so your 10-15% fall sounds quite likely to me. However, being cautious on the basis that rates have been above 15% in the past, you have to consider that it's perfectly possible that they will hit that point again. Especially if we have a change of government and a change of economic management and policy.

[Scoot]

I've just bought two commercial properties for my business , both of them from landlords that were desperate to sell. I've never seen so many commercial properties up for sale too over the last 6 months and this might just be the start of things.

Personally i believe that prices will drop around 10% 15% by the end of this year but there is a big chance that properties could fall 25% / 40% IMO.

To give an example i went to a friend who's renting a very nice 1 bedroom new build flat on an estate. I decided to pop over the street to the show home . The one bedroom apartments were selling for £135000 late last year, prices today were at £115000/£117000 and as i was in a position to move they were down to £107000 and that included carpets . I'm waiting to see if i can get one at £95000 but its still a gamble at that price.

[SoYank]

What is it with the British and their insistence on "including carpets"? Do you all really move house and take the old carpets with you to the new abode?

[willhollin]

Originally Posted by SoYank

What is it with the British and their insistence on "including carpets"? Do you all really move house and take the old carpets with you to the new abode?

We take everything, light bulbs, electrical sockets, toilet seats etc. I actually took my front door with me to my new house. Its just the way its done over here.

[- Paul -]

I wish the carpets weren't included in the property I'm hoping to buy - they are horrid!!!

[NFS]

Originally Posted by 1stnewcar

I wish the carpets weren't included in the property I'm hoping to buy - they are horrid!!!

The lady we bought our place from wanted £2k extra for the carpets. Since they were pretty cheap and nasty we told her to get knotted.

So she threatened to take them with her and some of the light fittings, to which we said OK, subject to the removal of all nails, tacks and gripper rods, all floors to be swept clean and all electrical lighting points fitted with a new ceiling rose by a professional electrician.

Based on that she dropped the issue, but then we ended up skipping ALL the carpets about 2 weeks after moving in because they were full of cat fleas.

As I understand now, when your cat has fleas they bite the cat because human blood is bad for them. When there is no cat to bite, they have to start biting people instead.

From here on in I will be insisting that carpets be removed if I by a house from anyone who has pets.