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      01-18-2008, 03:16 PM   #1
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Good time to buy with talks of recession?

I wonder how bad the car market is being affected with all this talk of consumers not spending... and wonder if it would be a good time to look into trading up! What are your thoughts?
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      01-18-2008, 03:19 PM   #2
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Spend! Spend! Spend! Let the irrational exuberance flow.
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      01-18-2008, 03:23 PM   #3
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pSHH!! I'm military, and we are in America! Cutting back military is not an option..... so my job is safe!
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      01-18-2008, 03:32 PM   #4
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Only way to get out of a recession is spend your way out of it ;-)

BMW's sale was up 7% as of Nov last year so I am not sure how much premium brand may suffer or has it even kicked in yet.
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      01-18-2008, 03:37 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbo View Post
Only way to get out of a recession is spend your way out of it ;-)

BMW's sale was up 7% as of Nov last year so I am not sure how much premium brand may suffer or has it even kicked in yet.
smart man aye!

yah the more people and gov't spend, the better it will be
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      01-18-2008, 03:45 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbo View Post
Only way to get out of a recession is spend your way out of it ;-)

BMW's sale was up 7% as of Nov last year so I am not sure how much premium brand may suffer or has it even kicked in yet.
I would think premium items take a bigger hit.

Bring on my 600 dollar check! If spending is what they want I'm willing to oblige.
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      01-18-2008, 03:49 PM   #7
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I dunno, I cashed in two mutual funds to put the downpay on the 335. Back then the lessees were saying how dumb it is to put money down on a "depreciating" asset, they invest the cash flow they free up by leasing. When I see my mutual funds are worth less than they were 15 mos. ago, I personally feel like I made the right move. But if I had to cash in two mutual funds today to make the downpay on an '08, I wouldn't. That would be like buying high and selling low. So when people spend less during a recession, I can't see why others would go the opposite way and spend more. It's like everyone else is building a bomb shelter, but the OP turns up the surround sound and lives in his bubble of Blue Ray and HD.

McCain just said something so dumb I was quite surprised. Lowering the corp. income tax was dumb, but saying they should write-off an asset in one year, that was stupid. He obviously slept through finance at the Naval Academy...reminds me of Seinfeld and Kramer...

Kramer : Jerry all these big companies they write off everything

Jerry : You don't even know what a write off is .

Kramer : Do you ?

Jerry : No . I don't .
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      01-18-2008, 03:50 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AwLegacyGT View Post
I wonder how bad the car market is being affected with all this talk of consumers not spending... and wonder if it would be a good time to look into trading up! What are your thoughts?
I think our economy has little to do with the required margins of BMW dealerships / manufacturing.

The real question is how will the recession affect your personal finances and measures such as, medium term income risk, credit, ancillary costs (insurance, gas, parking, mods etc), monthly free cash, etc.
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      01-18-2008, 04:08 PM   #9
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I'm not an economics major, but I would think our weakened economy would have a direct impact on the required margins of BMW dealerships. With unemployment rising, people's retirement funds taking big hits, and foreclosures at an all time high... I find it hard to believe that their sales level remain what it was a year ago.
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      01-18-2008, 05:05 PM   #10
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there is no recession... and there wont be... okay peoples. ill win the biggest lotto ever and give it all to help our economy... sike! id save it all in a box under my bed to help us out! hahahaha
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      01-18-2008, 11:37 PM   #11
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hmm hopefully it wont become worse than the "GREAT" depression.....
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      01-19-2008, 12:27 AM   #12
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everything will trickle down eventually..
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      01-19-2008, 08:34 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 335i4u2nv View Post
there is no recession... and there wont be... okay peoples. ill win the biggest lotto ever and give it all to help our economy... sike! id save it all in a box under my bed to help us out! hahahaha
Last time I checked, there wasn't any lottery where the payout was in the trillions. You're better off winning the lotto, keeping the money for yourself. Just make sure they pay you in Euros or Chinese money. If not, you'll lose even more because rates are going down on weak currency.
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      01-19-2008, 09:03 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Laszlo View Post
we are going into a recession that will be worse than anything we have ever seen in our lives, including our parents...
IMO I really don't think it will get to the point of say a "Great Depression II", but shit may suck for a few years economy wise. It already has actually. We could already be 2-3 years into this so called "depression" you hear economic forecasters bring up.

But it definitely won't get to the point were people can't afford to eat. I think a lot of the luxury/leisure industry will taking the biggest hit. Restaurants, fast food, Car dealers, Gyms like Bally's or Gold's, Malls, Travel destinations, etc. Eventually Americans will have to cut back on things and those items will be the first to go. The people, which there will be a lot of them, that don't cut back will be the ones in their own "great depression".

Personally I love it. Cash is rolling it's way to my business. I'm making a ton off the stupid people who love to spend but can't pay for their mortgage. That's right foreclosure service is where it's at and where it will be for a decade +. The govt. can't stop this giant shit ball no matter what they do, it has way too much momentum and way too many dumb asses helping it along.
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      01-19-2008, 09:16 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AwLegacyGT View Post
I wonder how bad the car market is being affected with all this talk of consumers not spending... and wonder if it would be a good time to look into trading up! What are your thoughts?
As for you, are you trading up as in a lease or a car you financed?

If you leased, hell fuckin no, unless you enjoy throwing money away. If that's the case I'm sure many members wouldn't mind PMing you their mailing address to throw money away to us as well. No dealer will give you a deal where you won't owe thousands to get out of the loan or roll thousands onto the next car. In the end it's never a pretty picture.

If you financed, put the car up for sale and see what happens. Maybe even see what the dealer will offer, prolly no where near what a private sale will but if you don't want to go through that hassle then this is your only option. Either way you still may lose a few $k cuz in the end cuz you rarely ever get what the car is actually worth.
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      01-19-2008, 11:05 AM   #16
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darkcloud has a good point that you should explore what you can sell your car for today - versus next year or the year after when it has more wear and tear. That might help you decide if it is better to trade up now or later.

Look at your financial situation tho - how safe is your job/income (regardless of how the bigger economy is doing) and where you realistically expect to be financially a few years from now. just don't deceive yourself and buy now on tomorrow's promises.

As far as getting a deal, I don't see luxury car dealers crying for customers anytime soon. Certainly gas prices are getting ugly, but thanks to loose credit, it hasn't made much of a dent in the hordes of late-model big-assed SUVs wallowing around.
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      01-19-2008, 11:25 AM   #17
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Currently its a bad time to get a car. The weakening of dollars makes it tough for European Car Companies to make good profit once converted back to Euros.
My brother inlaw went to the dealership to Check lease prices on a few models. It was insanely high.
The market is Bearish right now. SHORT EVERYTHING !

Words from Rutgers Finance Major
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      01-19-2008, 01:08 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AwLegacyGT View Post
pSHH!! I'm military, and we are in America! Cutting back military is not an option.....
heh...wanna bet? All those who got out around 1998 claimed unemployment. Reason? Downsizing.
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      01-20-2008, 11:09 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by denlin68 View Post
Currently its a bad time to get a car. The weakening of dollars makes it tough for European Car Companies to make good profit once converted back to Euros.
My brother inlaw went to the dealership to Check lease prices on a few models. It was insanely high.
The market is Bearish right now. SHORT EVERYTHING !

Words from Rutgers Finance Major
Interesting point you bring up--strengthening Euro so lease factors unfavorable. Yet list price on a 335 coupe went up $200 in over 16 mos. Makes it more attractive to buy with relative dollars.

But, as BMW, since most of your American buyers lease anyway, one way to look as if you're keeping prices down is to do just that, and stick it to those who lease, which is what, like 75% these days? Let them live in their bubble of investing the cash flow savings. Pretty soon, we truly wont have anything but debt.

Warren Buffet shorted US dollars about 5 years ago, how much more upside is there? It's amazing how quick many are to just say what is already obvious, but they cannot come up with anything that will build let alone sustain wealth.
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      01-20-2008, 11:58 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Laszlo View Post
we are going into a recession that will be worse than anything we have ever seen in our lives, including our parents...
Uh, huh.. and your name is Greenspan? ...or Nostradamus?
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      01-21-2008, 09:40 PM   #21
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It's amazing how quick many are to just say what is already obvious, but they cannot come up with anything that will build let alone sustain wealth.
Hello, pot? Hi, it's the kettle. Guess what? You're black!
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      01-21-2008, 10:34 PM   #22
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Isn't the Money factor links directly to Interest rate?

By the end of last year, MF for E92 lease was 0.00175. The MF is 0.00245 currently, Jan 2008. This change simply jack up the monthly lease payment easily.

I know that coz I just checked with a dealer for the payment of the same car my buddy got 3 months ago.
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