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      11-06-2009, 12:39 PM   #1
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Unemployment over 10%

To Doc325i...

Crap, I just lost our bet. I read about the unemployment rate in every paper/website this morning. PM me and I'll cut you a check.

Hope all is well with you. Both my wife and I survived layoffs at our respective companies and have seen things pick up a bit.

Although I still don't beleive that the cash for clunkers program was a "success" nor do I completely agree on the stimulus programs that are being rammed down; I think both you an I can agree to disagree and collectively hope the best for the economy and govt.

Cheers - Hope you buy some beer/drinks with your winnings!

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      11-06-2009, 02:26 PM   #2
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I lost my job of 2 years last January. Found one with a great company june. The sad thing about my old job is I had the most experience and was payed the most money out of anyone in my position, so they found grounds to get rid of me. I lived off of unemployment for sometime and felt horrible about it. Hope everyone is doing well.
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      11-06-2009, 03:04 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCS View Post
To Doc325i...

Crap, I just lost our bet. I read about the unemployment rate in every paper/website this morning. PM me and I'll cut you a check.

Hope all is well with you. Both my wife and I survived layoffs at our respective companies and have seen things pick up a bit.

Although I still don't beleive that the cash for clunkers program was a "success" nor do I completely agree on the stimulus programs that are being rammed down; I think both you an I can agree to disagree and collectively hope the best for the economy and govt.

Cheers - Hope you buy some beer/drinks with your winnings!

MCS
Although I dont know the details...from what I can get out you bet that unemployment would not exceed 10%.???? if so......why would you ever make that bet??? Its gonna get worse dude....just watch.
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      11-06-2009, 07:06 PM   #4
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In one of the older threads during last year (pre election) I was arguing with Dr325i.

Anyways - long story short - yes, I bet him that unemployemnt would remain below 10% for the next year (2009).

I was betting that Obama/McCain, whomever was elected was going to do whatever it took to keep the unemployment number below the magic 10% mark. As a number - it can be argued that 10% is not even real or calculated correctly, but it strikes a chord in the publications and newsrags...

Yes - Hindsight is 50/50.

I agree that unemployment's gonna get worse; sorry to hear about those who lost jobs. Hope you all land on your feet ala Heintz

My guess is that we should see a bit of a uptick in 2010. Companies that had layoffs (including mine) are gunshy about hiring and will probably open the doors again next year (that is, if this Xmas holiday works out well...)
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      11-07-2009, 12:46 AM   #5
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Also note that historically, after every single recession, unemployment lags behind. When a recession is declared over (two periods of a net increase in GDP), unemployment still continues to rise for a short time and then drops back down. We will expect to see unemployment continue to rise in the upcoming months, but it will drop back down again.



The reason why this is is because of lower sales during the recession. The company workers are still producing goods, but they've just been piling up over this time (note that production has definitely declined during this time, though). Well, now they've got a huge surplus of goods and declining profits and they have the make up somewhere. As a result, people are laid off. It also tends to lag behind because the skilled workers that were fired usually have either moved elsewhere to find other jobs or have already found new ones. New workers are hired, product production is slower as a result of inexperience, and they must pay to train them. Training = payment of workers with little or no product production, for the most part. Though, this is not always the case - experienced workers are hired, too, but for the most part it's inexperienced workers since they need people.
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      11-07-2009, 01:06 AM   #6
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Wasnt there suppose to be some big stimulus package or government thing that the president said would keep unemployment under 8%? I guess the prez was wrong...again.
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      11-07-2009, 10:15 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony View Post
Wasnt there suppose to be some big stimulus package or government thing that the president said would keep unemployment under 8%? I guess the prez was wrong...again.
Yeah, even if he did do that, it's not going to help anything in the long-run. Mathematically, boosting government spending brings up GDP, but only temporarily. We all still have to pay for it later probably during someone else's administration. The main incentive for administrations to do that is because they just wanna get re-elected. When we pay for it later we'll have less incentive to work, lower spending, etc. In the end it doesn't help much.

Basically, government spending works to fix short-term solutions but does harm for the long-run.
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      11-07-2009, 06:45 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Zell View Post
Yeah, even if he did do that, it's not going to help anything in the long-run. Mathematically, boosting government spending brings up GDP, but only temporarily. We all still have to pay for it later probably during someone else's administration. The main incentive for administrations to do that is because they just wanna get re-elected. When we pay for it later we'll have less incentive to work, lower spending, etc. In the end it doesn't help much.

Basically, government spending works to fix short-term solutions but does harm for the long-run.
However in this case, the government spending hasn't helped the short term OR the long term. Total fail in both cases since we are still sinking!!
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      11-07-2009, 06:51 PM   #9
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And keep in mind...that the "hidden" unemployment rate is +17%. A lot of people have either dropped out of the job market or have settled for part-time work.
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      11-08-2009, 05:48 PM   #10
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We're hiring like crazy in Houston as of 2 months ago. Oil & energy industry. If we can get the damn oil prices back up we'll all be back in business.

Drilling has picked up significantly 3Q 09. 2010 projections look good.
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      11-08-2009, 06:21 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ianthegreat View Post
We're hiring like crazy in Houston as of 2 months ago. Oil & energy industry. If we can get the damn oil prices back up we'll all be back in business.

Drilling has picked up significantly 3Q 09. 2010 projections look good.
When you say oil prices I think you mean gas prices, which will likely not happen anytime soon.

Oil prices have already recovered to a level that makes most plays economical.

Another $10 wouldn't hurt, though.
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      11-09-2009, 09:21 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ianthegreat View Post
We're hiring like crazy in Houston as of 2 months ago. Oil & energy industry. If we can get the damn oil prices back up we'll all be back in business.

Drilling has picked up significantly 3Q 09. 2010 projections look good.
Oh yeah because $4.50 a gallon would be so beneficial to most americans trying to scrape by right now. Sure...
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      11-09-2009, 10:55 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ianthegreat View Post
We're hiring like crazy in Houston as of 2 months ago. Oil & energy industry. If we can get the damn oil prices back up we'll all be back in business.

Drilling has picked up significantly 3Q 09. 2010 projections look good.
lol...."if we could get oil prices to go back up???" how will that help? aside from increasing employment within the oil/energy sector...it still wont cure the broader economy. What about the rest of the people who could barely afford gas/heating oil now at current market prices??
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      11-09-2009, 12:48 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony View Post
However in this case, the government spending hasn't helped the short term OR the long term. Total fail in both cases since we are still sinking!!
sometimes i wish Bush would have been given an extra year to remain in office. I wonder how he would have handled this mess.

he basically ejected out of a 747 and left Obama to pilot the plane with 1 gallon of fuel, over the middle of the Atlantic, at night, and the radio is broken.
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      11-09-2009, 01:02 PM   #15
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Oh yeah because $4.50 a gallon would be so beneficial to most americans trying to scrape by right now. Sure...
With inelastic demand, it'd benefit the crap out of the oil companies. Too bad we import all of our oil. If we could raise prices on our own home-grown stuff that is inelastic then that would be good. Mark up the crap out of cigarettes, alcohol, cigars, and dip.
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      11-10-2009, 10:00 PM   #16
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Too bad we import all of our oil.
Not all, but I think we import close to two-thirds of our oil consumption.
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      11-11-2009, 12:24 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prowess Symphony View Post
Wasnt there suppose to be some big stimulus package or government thing that the president said would keep unemployment under 8%? I guess the prez was wrong...again.
Huh?, is the bottom still falling out? Or has it flattened out? aren't all of the "experts" essentially saying the same thing, that the recession is over.

But arresting a free-fall ain't good enough? Your shitbag prez W basically takes us off a cliff and this guy ends a recession (and maybe gets millions of people health insurance - good forbid ) but yeah, it's not under 8% so fuk 'im.
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      11-11-2009, 12:48 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by MteK View Post
Huh?, is the bottom still falling out? Or has it flattened out? aren't all of the "experts" essentially saying the same thing, that the recession is over.

But arresting a free-fall ain't good enough? Your shitbag prez W basically takes us off a cliff and this guy ends a recession (and maybe gets millions of people health insurance - good forbid ) but yeah, it's not under 8% so fuk 'im.
Its up to 10.2% now from the news I just watched. Obama promised that wouldn't happen, he lied. And I assume your referring to the healthcare plan where I am forced to pay or GO TO JAIL, which is a violation of my constitutional rights. Yeah, thats a great plan.

You know, lots of people thought hitler was great at first too. Not saying that O is as bad or ever will be as bad as hitler, Im just saying, its easy to believe in somebody until its too late.

While Bush was visiting the wounded soliders from that attack on the military base a few days ago, Obama was vacationing. Way to support the troops Obama........oh wait........your the one making all these crazy rules and delays which are getting our troops killed overseas anyway, so why would I think that you would care about our troops over here.
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      11-11-2009, 01:25 AM   #19
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Wow, 5.8% here in Australia - can't fathom 10% at all.

Hope everyone over in the US is going OK.
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      11-11-2009, 02:33 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zell View Post
Also note that historically, after every single recession, unemployment lags behind. When a recession is declared over (two periods of a net increase in GDP), unemployment still continues to rise for a short time and then drops back down. We will expect to see unemployment continue to rise in the upcoming months, but it will drop back down again.



The reason why this is is because of lower sales during the recession. The company workers are still producing goods, but they've just been piling up over this time (note that production has definitely declined during this time, though). Well, now they've got a huge surplus of goods and declining profits and they have the make up somewhere. As a result, people are laid off. It also tends to lag behind because the skilled workers that were fired usually have either moved elsewhere to find other jobs or have already found new ones. New workers are hired, product production is slower as a result of inexperience, and they must pay to train them. Training = payment of workers with little or no product production, for the most part. Though, this is not always the case - experienced workers are hired, too, but for the most part it's inexperienced workers since they need people.
As with the last recession, I would expect to see more of a "jobless" recovery. We don't have a manufacturing economy any longer. When we did, factories would first start to increase hours (PT->FT->OT) and then hire more people. Hence employment lagged.

In a knowledge economy, we can do with less. We rely more heavily on business processes and services, which recover far more slowly than manufacturing jobs. Toys Inc. may see an increase in demand, so they order more from the factory in China. No new jobs here. Eventually they decide they need to improve their business process, bring a new technology to market, etc., and then they will hire people. But that will be years down the road.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MteK View Post
Huh?, is the bottom still falling out? Or has it flattened out? aren't all of the "experts" essentially saying the same thing, that the recession is over.

But arresting a free-fall ain't good enough? Your shitbag prez W basically takes us off a cliff and this guy ends a recession (and maybe gets millions of people health insurance - good forbid ) but yeah, it's not under 8% so fuk 'im.
W didn't take us off a cliff, and Obama didn't end a recession. If your really believe your post, please dig a little deeper into what makes our economy run before you post. The economy was doomed for a recession before W ever took office, and a recovery was inevitable, Obama did nothing to encourage it. If anything he is discouraging it, because his spending is stifling private investment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zell View Post
With inelastic demand, it'd benefit the crap out of the oil companies. Too bad we import all of our oil. If we could raise prices on our own home-grown stuff that is inelastic then that would be good. Mark up the crap out of cigarettes, alcohol, cigars, and dip.
No we don't.
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      11-11-2009, 11:23 AM   #21
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The problem is obviously that the employment numbers are lagging indicators. But what scares me is the rising productivity numbers from American workers. The productivity keeps rising and companies keep producing. I have a feeling that companies are going to keep doing more with less until another phenomenon happens (like the dotcom) boom that causes companies to go on a serious hiring spree. And frankly, i don't see it coming for a while.
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      11-11-2009, 11:27 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TurboFan View Post
Obama did nothing to encourage it. If anything he is discouraging it, because his spending is stifling private investment.
You can't have it both ways...
You can't run in fear that a deep depression is coming and employment will hit 20% if something isn't done, then complain that what was done is now hurting our growth now that things are settling back to normal. What would have happened if we let WellsFargo, BankOfAmerica, CITI, GM, Chrysler, AIG and others fail? I can assure you the recession would not be ending. Also, you could easily add another 5 million to the number of recently unemployed.

Spending will have to be checked, but I don't think that you can efficiently keep spending steady and grow an economy in a recession.
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