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      05-22-2012, 12:48 AM   #925
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Stop taking all the credit bro! Haha I'm just kidding. TMV is gonna be killing.. I think.
Going back I did see all of your bear flag posts
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      05-22-2012, 01:01 AM   #926
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Vanity, what do you think about this
(paste it)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24...258677702&r=56
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      05-22-2012, 02:12 AM   #927
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Vanity, what do you think about this
(paste it)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24...258677702&r=56
I think the line he drew downwards from the 2000 dotcom peak as a resistance channel being broken is accurate. However, I believe this chart is showing the end of the 2000-2012 bear market in favour of a secular bull right?

If you extend the line forward, which the graph doesnt, you can see it might make intersection with 1250 on the Nasdaq by the end of 2012. In which case, a bearish move to 1250 (below the 1265 2009 lows) is still possible before a secular bull market begins (of which I am a believer of the next secular bull market happening after an 08 style meltdown).

Btw guys, it looks like some big banks on Wall Street are going to be downgraded by the end of this month (read: this week). Talks are of MS getting a 3-notch downgrade by Moodys since it's corporate bonds are now yielding higher than even Spanish 10 years! Banks on Moody's hit lit are BAC, MS, GS, Barclays, UBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, most likely JPM, etc. In total about 17 banks, of which 6 are in threat of receiving a downgrade on the bank unit itself. These downgrade watches had been under review since about February. I've seen what downgrades on Spanish banks have done, but I have yet to see what US Bank downgrades will do to our markets...
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      05-22-2012, 03:26 AM   #928
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You think it's gonna occur by the end of this week? Can you say TVIX? How sure of you are this? Is it well known by the public already? Put:call ratio must be high
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      05-22-2012, 03:48 AM   #929
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You think it's gonna occur by the end of this week? Can you say TVIX? How sure of you are this? Is it well known by the public already? Put:call ratio must be high
banks Braced for Fresh Ratings Cut

Hot off the press this morning.

Quote:
Banks are braced for a fresh attack on their profit margins, if Moody’s presses ahead shortly with plans to downgrade short-term funding ratings sectorwide.

Moody’s has put dozens of banks worldwide on notice of potential downgrades, with the latest implemented in Spain last week.

But most attention has focused on the 17 investment banks that the agency placed under review in February, of which six are also under threat that the short-term rating of either their holding company or the bank unit – or both – will be downgraded. The institutions affected are Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS.
The key to finding the trader sentiment however is in another article also published today:

Facebook Fiasco is just latest blow to Morgan Stanley

Quote:
A two-notch downgrade could now be three notches because of JPMorgan's bad news. Three notches, say traders, would require Morgan Stanley to have close to $10 billion in extra liquidity, which will not be a problem. The firm last reported $178 billion in total liquidity. It’ll just make a tough situation tougher.

Traders are waiting for Moody's to downgrade Morgan Stanley's credit rating, a move that is expected by the end of the month.
I'm no expert on Moody's, but I've seen how these guys like to downgrade institutions. And they usually do a packaged-deal, after-bell announcement. It may come after Friday and lead to chaos next Monday. This week may be another consolidation week. Big pros already know this (obviously because they're being targeted).


P.S. JPM halted share buybacks. It listed in the Fed Stress Tests this year, of which JPM jumped the gun on to release it's ambitious buyback scheme, that should JPM lose $31.5 Billion within the periods Q4 2011 - Q4 2013, they would be unable to issue new buybacks. Read that again, carefully. I have no idea if JPM has suspended buybacks because they've crossed this $31.5B USD threshold, or if the quarterly loss allowed has been tresspassed. All I know is there are talks of Dimon being kicked out of the Fed (of which he's a member, fyi), and I know he's being extremely hush about the loss (of which now is surfacing to be $3 Billion in losses).

This, too, just hit the wire: Double trouble at JP Morgan: trader's losses could exceed $7bn

Quote:
Fears were growing that the losses could spiral from an initial $2bn, which was declared on 10 May, as JP Morgan struggles to unwind the massive bets made by the so-called "London Whale" trader Bruno Iksil.

In a further blow, chairman and chief executive Jamie Dimon has suspended plans to use the US bank's own funds to buy back $15bn worth of shares.

Rival traders reckon that the losses could be as high $7bn. "The markets know pretty much what JP Morgan has and in what sizes," said one trader.

Mr Iksil was betting on the credit-worthiness of corporate America and if that starts to fall JP Morgan's losses could mount further.


Wait, what? The Credit-Worthiness of Corporate America? But... But... Moody's is going to downgrade all their credit....





















^That was just for fun cause this post had been so brutal.
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      05-22-2012, 11:46 AM   #930
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Vanity I'm curious why you put so much thought into the news. Most chartist uses nothing but the numbers yet you seem to put a lot of emphasis on the news. Not trying to hate on your style; I'd just like your thoughts on this. Also, don't you think a lot of this news is already been priced in?

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      05-22-2012, 02:16 PM   #931
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Vanity I'm curious why you put so much thought into the news. Most chartist uses nothing but the numbers yet you seem to put a lot of emphasis on the news. Not trying to hate on your style; I'd just like your thoughts on this. Also, don't you think a lot of this news is already been priced in?
IMO, I ignore a lot of the news. I hate CNBS a lot sometimes because it's quite evident what they try to do to misinform people. What I do look at are "events". Trading news and trading on charts, either one alone sucks because you need both for context. News will tell you which charts to look at, IMO. If I'm expecting a meltdown at JPM to take down the markets, I'm going to look at 2008 charts with Lehmans, and not 2010, for example.

As for things being priced in, cough cough, it's three years later and we still fret over Greece. "Priced-in" is sometimes a cop out by the bulls to ignore things. IMHO. Not directing that to you.
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      05-22-2012, 03:54 PM   #932
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Should I long AAPL? Currently at 556. Been pretty stable for past few weeks after dropping from 650. Market isn't looking too good right now..
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      05-23-2012, 12:38 AM   #933
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Should I long AAPL? Currently at 556. Been pretty stable for past few weeks after dropping from 650. Market isn't looking too good right now..
Markets are a game upon the Greater Fool Theory. You must always ask yourself whether or not you could flip this stock for a higher price, to someone else, later on. If you think you can, go for it. Tell us why you would though, and "just because" isn't a good reason IMO.
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      05-23-2012, 03:27 PM   #934
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Markets are going absolutely no where again. What's different this time though, is how large the fluctuations are (100-160 point swings, either way). If this is another consolidation week setup to further declines, then this is a very large consolidation setup. We might have quite substantial free fall happening after this (if, and only if, this is a large consolidation week). If we get those credit downgrades, of which would further JPM's losses, and then shortly after Twist ends June 9th, and then the panic from the June17 elections kicks in beforehand, and we have quite a weeks worth of selling off environment setup ahead of us.

Edit: Dow closed down 6.66. How nice... Lol. Wonder if this means we will revisit 666 on the SPX again
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      05-24-2012, 10:32 AM   #935
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anyone like wynn at these levels? it's close to their 52 week low, i'm sure it will bounce slowly but surely?
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      05-24-2012, 01:37 PM   #936
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anyone like wynn at these levels? it's close to their 52 week low, i'm sure it will bounce slowly but surely?
I don't keep up with that stock so I wouldn't know. But the overall market picture right now... pretty bleak.
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      05-25-2012, 12:26 PM   #937
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Such a flat ass day..
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      05-26-2012, 01:41 AM   #938
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Looks to be another consolidation week before the next decline. Being that the market was so extremely oversold, the only rally we truly got was +130 points. Very pathetic, and signals that this is not the bottom of the declines yet. The week has ended up only 0.7% up, hardly a comeback by the bulls to a near 10% decline in May. Further supporting the fact that this was not a comeback rally, but instead a rest period before the next sell-off. MACD also reset and is again pointing down again, signalling further declines to come Tuesday.

Given the larger range of the consolidation this week, compared to last, I expect a larger decline to occur next week if we do (more than the -5.4% we got last week). I also expect selling momentum to pick up pace. The next sell-off though, I do expect a more significant rally upwards, so Long then if anyone is choosing to Long now. We also have a shortened trading week thanks to memorial day Monday. Another reason why I believe selling momentum will pick up, as it is compressed into a narrower time period for sell-offs. Plus, we will have 1 extra day this weekend where the markets are susceptible to bad news.

However, if over the 3 days we get anything stimuli related then all bets are off and we are rallying higher. Highly doubt it though. And that is a "hope" trade. Never trade on hope, imo.
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      05-29-2012, 02:31 PM   #939
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such a fail.
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      05-29-2012, 02:51 PM   #940
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Farcebook has completely ruined the already poor relationship between the retail investor with Wall-Street. It's sad that so many people lost money but they should have know what they were getting into.
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      05-30-2012, 09:01 AM   #941
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Farcebook has completely ruined the already poor relationship between the retail investor with Wall-Street. It's sad that so many people lost money but they should have know what they were getting into.
+1 it still amazes me how over publicized it was best rule to not lose money: If its on cnbc stay away

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      05-30-2012, 12:15 PM   #942
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Anybody seeing the incredible move in US 10 year yields? Anybody seeing the dollar breakout again today? And the euro collapsing? Selling pressure being compacted into a smaller trading week, for sure. The move in treasuries and us dollar tells me much more downside is coming.

Btw, if things get pretty bad (this isn't a timeline thing, just a reminder I guess) and the markets crash, do not trap yourself in stocks. ETFs are the only thing liquid enough to get out.
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      05-30-2012, 04:23 PM   #943
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Another day of selling tomorrow? I thought about stacking up on JPM puts but ran out of time and the order didn't fill. I still have puts though, mostly GOOG. The Greeks will cause the European markets to collapse for sure and I'm sure it'll happen over the weekend or Friday afternoon, and that's to be expected.
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      05-30-2012, 05:11 PM   #944
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Another day of selling tomorrow? I thought about stacking up on JPM puts but ran out of time and the order didn't fill. I still have puts though, mostly GOOG. The Greeks will cause the European markets to collapse for sure and I'm sure it'll happen over the weekend or Friday afternoon, and that's to be expected.
I'm expecting Spain to be our Lehman, not Greece. You get collapses from TBTF's, and Greece can fail. Spain cannot, and that's the trigger to the gun you should be eyeing right now. The 10-year Spanish bonds now soaring to a record of 6.5%, never has it been this high. Their 2-years are now over 5% because Bankia needs funding from the public, or government, or somewhere. And look at our current US treasury market, now the lowest recorded yield in history at 1.64% for our 10 year. Money is flying out of equities and into bonds. Look at the move in US dollar again, keeps making a new 52-week high every day almost. Made a new one today, and the Euro will collapse through 1.24. I've been betting on it to collapse down from late April when it was 1.32, and I expect the move to bottom somewhere 1.20 for the Euro.

ECB came out and said no more Bond-buying programs, no more LTRO3. ECB told governments they are "own their own". Chinese government has just come out and said the exact same thing; "We have no interest in launching any stimulus". And the FED will bring no QE3 or Twist extension this June. The end game is approaching very soon, and June will not be a pretty month. That's why I said a while back I expected a collapse not in May, but in June/July time frame. We shall see.

I should write a post sometime about how Solvent Banks can actually be very insolvent.
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      05-30-2012, 06:27 PM   #945
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Stay short or stay out of the market!
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      05-31-2012, 02:53 PM   #946
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Short covering rally today after news of IMF bailing out Spain. But look how quick the rumours prove to be, IMF is actually not in any negotiations with Spain at all about financial assistance, nor are they planning any.

Looks like the big boys are pumping rumors into the circuit to load up some short covers before this thing goes down. Ignore the tape, it's meant to distract you today. Concentrate on the USD, Euro, and yield movements. All have hit extremes, day after day. This is a telling sign of some very bad things to happen.

Either 1) US 10 & 30 yields, Spain 2 & 10 yields, USD, Euro, German Bunds, Commodities, Semi-conductor markets, Euro/Asian markets, and everything else are over-extended relative to the US equity markets, and they need to come down and reverse so that US Equities can take off,

OR,

2) Equities does not belong at these current levels and has to make an extreme move itself to re-establish equilibrium with all of the technical signals atm. This scenario is a crash. And I believe we are walking the fine line here, and a crash is either happening now or within the next days, weeks, or 2 months (June-July). This theory is completely invalid however, if more Stimulus arises. And as I've said in the previous post:

Quote:
ECB came out and said no more Bond-buying programs, no more LTRO3. ECB told governments they are "own their own". Chinese government has just come out and said the exact same thing; "We have no interest in launching any stimulus". And the FED will bring no QE3 or Twist extension this June. The end game is approaching very soon, and June will not be a pretty month. That's why I said a while back I expected a collapse not in May, but in June/July time frame. We shall see.
Double-dip recession will come this year. I will probably re-quote this post in a future posting to time-mark it. Bring your attentions to the rollover in US data and the thick morass jobs numbers have had a hard time advancing through.
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