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      08-05-2011, 12:22 PM   #1
no_ball
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Stocks and shares...

Lloyds share value has nearly halved in the past 6 months, does it generally surmise that it will take 6 months to recover assuming the bottom of the bucket has been reached??
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      08-05-2011, 02:48 PM   #2
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Lloyds share value has nearly halved in the past 6 months, does it generally surmise that it will take 6 months to recover assuming the bottom of the bucket has been reached??
More like 6 years. I think current market turmoil and the impending Euro implosion and global debt will make for an interesting few weeks/months/years. Get yer tin hats at the ready......

I was seriously tempted by Barclays at sub 180 today though. I held it at 330ish in Feb.....
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      08-05-2011, 04:05 PM   #3
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lloyds look a good buy next week sometime..
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      08-05-2011, 04:29 PM   #4
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lloyds look a good buy next week sometime..
Yeah think they may drop a little more yet. Maybe 30p.. I bought very cheap when banks collapsed 3 years ago and BP after the gulf of Mexico disaster.. Both doubled with in just a couple of months, but I guess it's still a gamble. If you cant aford to lose the money dont gamble!!
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      08-05-2011, 06:01 PM   #5
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an estimated 100m is about to be wiped off the FTSE index in the next few weeks, apparently. My brother is a private trader and he ceased trading 5 months ago as the market was so unpredictable.
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      08-05-2011, 06:08 PM   #6
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The economy is a serious state at the moment... stocks markets crashing is the start of the second dip.... hold onto your hats cos this is going to be a bumpy ride.
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      08-06-2011, 02:05 AM   #7
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Put mine back into property in the end
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      08-06-2011, 02:37 AM   #8
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News this morning of the u.s loosing their AAA rating is not going to help things.

The Chinese who has the biggest stake in americas debt are calling for a new currency to become the default global currency. We are entering a new era and the east is about to rise
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      08-06-2011, 02:54 AM   #9
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an estimated 100m is about to be wiped off the FTSE index in the next few weeks, apparently. My brother is a private trader and he ceased trading 5 months ago as the market was so unpredictable.
100m is a drop in the ocean, I think you mean 100Bn.
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      08-06-2011, 03:07 AM   #10
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100m is a drop in the ocean, I think you mean 100Bn.
I wonder if he had his pinkie angled to the corner of his mouth when he said it
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      08-06-2011, 05:07 AM   #11
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I wonder if he had his pinkie angled to the corner of his mouth when he said it
LOL @ 100m! .. global stockmarkets have lost $4.4 TRILLION in the past 7 days.. !


i dont want to spoil the fun but you need to have a wider perspective on things..

remember in 2008/09, central banks had the monetary policy tool to dramatically cut interest rates and then act as a buyer of last resort by committing to a dose or two of quantitative easing.. now most in developed nations cannot cut interest rates as they are virtually zero and another round of QE will only exaccerbate the debt problems

also, the reason the banks rallied so well last time was because they were given government backed guarantees.. the problem now is that, it is these very governments that are in sh*t!! and lastly china and the emerging markets managed to stimulate global economic growth but now they have there own inflation problems to worry about, so its unlikely they will able to take the same measures

when you analyse the balance sheets of banks and try to assign a true instrinsic value to them its difficult to do as there is so much hidden contagion you dont actually know what your buying..! saying that they have dropped off massively so there is bound to be a correction of some sort so there are short term buying opportunities, the long term picture i dont buy into though.. unless your a creditor then the risk/reward balance is worth it..

there are some serious good corporates out there, with good cash flows, growing dividends, trading at silly low P/Es.. the dividend yield on uk equities is higher than the yield on a 10 year US treasury.. a massive valuation annomoly! we just need some kind of central bank assurance before markets stop falling..

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      08-06-2011, 08:20 AM   #12
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I'm seriously tempted by Lloyds if they fall to 30.
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      08-06-2011, 08:58 AM   #13
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100m is a drop in the ocean, I think you mean 100Bn.
Yeah, must have been Billion. I used to do the whole Forex thing - the days of making a mint on this kind of thing are over (for the foreseeable futu

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LOL @ 100m! .. global stockmarkets have lost $4.4 TRILLION in the past 7 days.. !


i dont want to spoil the fun but you need to have a wider perspective on things..

remember in 2008/09, central banks had the monetary policy tool to dramatically cut interest rates and then act as a buyer of last resort by committing to a dose or two of quantitative easing.. now most in developed nations cannot cut interest rates as they are virtually zero and another round of QE will only exaccerbate the debt problems

also, the reason the banks rallied so well last time was because they were given government backed guarantees.. the problem now is that, it is these very governments that are in sh*t!! and lastly china and the emerging markets managed to stimulate global economic growth but now they have there own inflation problems to worry about, so its unlikely they will able to take the same measures

when you analyse the balance sheets of banks and try to assign a true instrinsic value to them its difficult to do as there is so much hidden contagion you dont actually know what your buying..! saying that they have dropped off massively so there is bound to be a correction of some sort so there are short term buying opportunities, the long term picture i dont buy into though.. unless your a creditor then the risk/reward balance is worth it..

there are some serious good corporates out there, with good cash flows, growing dividends, trading at silly low P/Es.. the dividend yield on uk equities is higher than the yield on a 10 year US treasury.. a massive valuation annomoly! we just need some kind of central bank assurance before markets stop falling..
No offense, but that's quite boring.

Only joking. You see, if you were brought up like me - don't borrow shit, unless it's a mortgage for a house and pay for everything else outright- then the world wouldn't be in this mess.

Greed and only Greed has got this World in this financial mess. Nothing else. People can put any spin they want on it.
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      08-06-2011, 09:15 AM   #14
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Yeah, must have been Billion. I used to do the whole Forex thing - the days of making a mint on this kind of thing are over (for the foreseeable futu.

not for stock pickers..


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No offense, but that's quite boring. .
yeh i suppose it is boring if you aren't in the business of managing multi billion pound portfolios..


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Only joking. You see, if you were brought up like me - don't borrow shit, unless it's a mortgage for a house and pay for everything else outright- then the world wouldn't be in this mess.

Greed and only Greed has got this World in this financial mess. Nothing else. People can put any spin they want on it.
agreed
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      08-06-2011, 09:38 AM   #15
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not for stock pickers..




yeh i suppose it is boring if you aren't in the business of managing multi billion pound portfolios..

lol. No - I'm not. I manage my own businesses and anything remotely to do with financial bollox - I pass on to my accountants. I know plenty of people who do similar jobs - 3 of my good friends have worked for Goldman Sachs. I fall asleep when they start chatting in their global trade language.

The Stock market is a massive betting shop. That's the way I look at it. For anyone outside of the 4 walls of, say, a private equity firm, it's all a blind guess when it comes to buying stocks/shares/bonds. Yes, we can study, review, read, see, hear, watch the market all day - but it's all dictated by what comes from someone's mouth - whether it's true or utter horse shit.

It can be excited though - I must admit that. But so too is backing a horse and watching it finish first.
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      08-06-2011, 09:56 AM   #16
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lol. No - I'm not. I manage my own businesses and anything remotely to do with financial bollox - I pass on to my accountants. I know plenty of people who do similar jobs - 3 of my good friends have worked for Goldman Sachs. I fall asleep when they start chatting in their global trade language.

The Stock market is a massive betting shop. That's the way I look at it. For anyone outside of the 4 walls of, say, a private equity firm, it's all a blind guess when it comes to buying stocks/shares/bonds. Yes, we can study, review, read, see, hear, watch the market all day - but it's all dictated by what comes from someone's mouth - whether it's true or utter horse shit.

It can be excited though - I must admit that. But so too is backing a horse and watching it finish first.

yup the technical side of things is abit boring if i say so myself, although all of what i've said is common sense..

yup thats all true, and the problem is people panic and buy on momentum rather than fundamentals.. in the words of mr buffet, the stockmarket is simply a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient
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      08-06-2011, 01:28 PM   #17
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Is there a possibility lloyds could end up being junk stock?
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      08-06-2011, 02:25 PM   #18
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Is there a possibility lloyds could end up being junk stock?
Hope not because it is majority owned by me and you (and x million other taxpayers)
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      08-06-2011, 03:25 PM   #19
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Hope not because it is majority owned by me and you (and x million other taxpayers)
Which is probably why it will become junk. Everything the government touches turns to shit.
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      08-06-2011, 03:35 PM   #20
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Which is probably why it will become junk. Everything the government touches turns to shit.
How very true.

What this crisis over the last 3 years tells me is that is it the death knell for socialism. The BIG 'state' and big government, across the western world has led to this level of indebtedness. Spending money that doesn't exist, mortgaging country's future finances (PPI) has let to massive state debt. I wonder if Gordon Brown et al, can sleep at night.
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      08-06-2011, 03:47 PM   #21
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Which is probably why it will become junk. Everything the government touches turns to shit.
Also, the government bailed Lloyds out for understandable reasons - but what have they done in return? Do we, as the owners of the bank get anything in return? perhaps lower mortgage interest rates? or how about some sort of dividend or investment in future jobs? Nope. They make staff redundant and say no to every request their customers, like me, ask of them. I know many many TSB customers who've asked for small loans or to borrow money for investments - not one of them have got any positive answers. Don't know where the hell they got these stats about lending more than ever to small businesses from. Horse shit. The lot of it.
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      08-06-2011, 03:48 PM   #22
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Hmm...

Really? It was the socialists that got us into this shit? New one on me.
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