Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity
My current take is this rebound ended today after the intra-reversal. Estimating the SPX to fall from 1315 down to 1265-1215 region, then another leg up that would take us past 1340, with a target of 1340-1400 (possibly). All relative and will probably change as trading continues.
|
Posted this on Thursday, and went full short that day to put my money where my mouth is. I had previously posted that this rebound was going to take us into the region of 1290-1342. Futures had hit 1346 and then quickly fell from there. The next ST target I have is 1265-1215. That's a 85-130 point drop from here. I suspect this leg down is going to give us a traceable bottom for a while, as I suspect panic selling is going to kick in now. Why now? Because this decline will be coming off a failed bailout, and bulls will finally realize why I've been saying for a while that bailouts have run their course and cannot be used to kick the can any further, whether the money is from the Fed, the ECB, or Lagarde's overly-ambitious/intrusive IMF.
The next tradable bottom has the potential to take us to 1340-1400, depending on how trading goes. I severely doubt we will make a new high this year.
Sorry Bulls.