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At lease start, banks are placing their bet based on what the resale value is at lease end, and many are losing big money due to inflated residuals. When lease cars are returned to the leasing company (BMWNA, Chase, Citi, etc) the cars get pooled together and sold at no reserve dealer auction.
There is a market price for cars on the resale market, and if say the residual was $40,000 and they could only get $30,000 at auction, it would definitely serve them better to negotiate and offer you something between $30-40k. However, due to bureaucracy issues, some might not even have the luxury to renegotiate, its like trying to stop a speeding freight train from going over the cliff.
Because the blue book price of cars have dropped so much lately, those who leased within the last 2-3 years have made a better bet than those who purchased. If the car's resale is less than residual, then you can return the car without any penalty.
Best bet is to call. If they don't offer you a better deal, return the car and get another one exact same spec (unless you are sentimentally attached to it). There are plenty of brokers who would be happy to snag up cars at auction for you.
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