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      01-29-2021, 01:28 PM   #270
David70
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/elon...valuation.html

According to Musk, he can justify their current stock price, you just need to believe in a product that doesn't exist but he has been promising for many years. Problem I see with this is if everything works as he hopes then the current stock price makes sense and if it doesn't? Seems difficult to come out ahead.

Elon Musk explains how self-driving robotaxis will justify Tesla’s massive valuation

In the car maker’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, Tesla’s CEO said there is a “roadmap to potentially justify” its market cap, which has topped $800 billion, making it the fifth-most valuable U.S. company.

Musk’s valuation math goes like this: Assume the company soon reaches $50 billion to $60 billion in annual car sales (the company generated $9.31 billion in automotive revenue in Q4 and said that vehicle deliveries would increase an average of 50% a year going forward). As Tesla’s self-driving technology continues to improve, those vehicles will become self-driving robotaxis, allowing usage to go from 12 hours a week to 60 hours a week. Tesla could charge additional fees for those robotaxis, allowing the company to generate much more revenue per car. Basically, it would be like bringing software economics to the manufacturing-intensive car business.

It’s possible that investors are already presuming Tesla’s cars will eventually turn into revenue-generating robotaxis. But the company isn’t close to having those capabilities yet, and Musk has a history of over-promising when it comes to technological innovation.

For instance, when Tesla began to discuss self-driving technology in 2016, Musk said the company would complete a hands-free trip across the U.S. by late 2017. The company has yet to complete that mission.
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