Quote:
Originally Posted by David70
According to Musk, he can justify their current stock price
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"justifying stock prices" is definitely an art as we see with
GAMESTONK! There are 3 general camps:
(1.) Value investors - these people look at "fundamentals", stock price, trends & forecasts and then buy & hold what they see as an underpriced stock with lots of
long-term upside, and usually use a lot of math; e.g., Warren Buffett.
(2.) Growth Investors - these people look at trends, estimate future expansion, and identify companies with what they believe is
long-term upside, they can use math, but it's estimates; e.g., Chamath Palihapitiya
(3.) Market Traders - These people watch things like market price trend "technicals" to determine if a stock is below price trend and buy, as well as get into all kinds of complicated shit like options (saddles, straddles, etc), leveraged buying, etc and, depending on how close to wall street they are, play even larger games. e.g., Dave Portnoy
And now maybe we have a new one:
(4.) Movement Traders - Basically WSB-type people using apps like Public, RH, etc who trade for reasons other than just profit. E.g., Jaime Rogozinski
Anyway, the point is, let's define "justify" - if you agree with those general categories of investing then one two apply to TSLA: #2 & #4, and since TSLA obviously isn't #4, then TSLA is only justifiable as a growth story ... so then the question becomes what's going to grow?
With TSLA, Musk is tossing out robotaxis ... but I don't think many investors are buying SOLELY because of robotaxis, it's obviously much more than that ...
So what Musk seems to be doing is adding in some new tangible future profit streams to add (or resurface) to the growth story.
My 2 cents has been and still is that FSD is a futurecasting distraction and,
as a technology,
it's done and now it's simply productizing it (i.e., AI was done technically in the 70s, it just couldn't be productized until fast/cheap hardware existed to make it mass-marketable):
[Waymo CEO John] Krafcik says that Waymo has largely completed technical work on its self-driving software and is now focused on scaling the technology up.
Net-Net:
TSLA is unjustifiable as a value investment and may never be; any TSLA buyer better be (1.) a long-term growth investor, or (2.) a short-term trader.
It's why I'm not a TSLA investor (except via index funds) - I obviously believe in their growth story, but not enough to put money there at current valuations (though I almost got in pre-split had it dropped into the 300s ... I was like $20/share away if I remember
)