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Originally Posted by ecaedus
we already know half a million people signed up for the car 4 years ago, so the fact that tesla is selling the model 3 as fast as it can make them shouldn't be any surprise at all.
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Naturally, yes. The noteworthy piece has been the conquesting from BMW.
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the real interesting sales comparison will come when the G20 arrives at dealerships. the first quarter numbers of the new G20 will be the proper one to compare against the Model 3 (maybe around that time the Standard mythical 35K model will be released).
if that number is somehow less than tesla's (which i doubt) then we can say that BMW is in a bit of a problem and will need to step up it's electrification game since clearly the market has made its decision regarding EV vs ICE.
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I feel comfortable calling it right now - MY2019 3 Series sales will at no time come even close to Model 3 sales. The reason is simple - Tesla still has hundreds of thousands of backorders to fill. Furthermore, I think it is fairly clear at this point that the reason the Model 3 bucks the trend of shrinking passenger car sales across the industry is that it is electric (and more specifically, is the first reasonably priced, practical ICE replacement vehicle on the market, though the Chevrolet Bolt is very compelling as well). That's a fairly killer USP that ensures brisk sales for the foreseeable future.
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the next important battleground will be around the X3 vs model Y around 2021, when the x3 will be facelifted and model Y will supposedly go on sale. either way it's going to be an interesting 5 years down the road for all car companies.
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I think we should expect the Model Y to have nearly as big an impact as the Model 3 has. While there are a number of electric luxury SUVs coming to market now and over the next two years in the span of time before the Model Y will hit the market, its value will likely eclipse all of those. Naturally the rest of the industry won't sit still, though. Investments in battery technology should start to pay off by early to mid next decade.
The iX3 will be a compelling vehicle in that it will offer everything the current X3 does, including the BMW quality and premium interior. The question is whether that is genuinely what the market prioritizes when it comes to an EV. Indeed, from what we know so far, it will have a 250 mile range - likely less than the LR Model Y - and, more damningly (if current information holds) it will only offer 2WD. So it remains to be seen how this competition will unfold.