![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() ![]() |
![]() |
BMW Garage | BMW Meets | Register | Today's Posts | Search |
![]() |
![]() ![]() |
BMW 3-Series (E90 E92) Forum
>
Still want an EV? (NO POLITICS)
![]() |
![]() |
07-15-2022, 07:15 PM | #529 | |
Captain
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 1605
Rep 787
Posts |
Quote:
I've seen it posted a lot: just force their hand and it will naturally work itself out. Supply and demand will solve this, scarcity drives innovation, Somebody will invent something, It will work be fine. This is a great opportunity. Yah, in 40 years it will be. I'd just like to make sure we get there with minimal pain and suffering along the way. Roughly 1/3 of all energy consumed by households goes to transportation. Shift that demand onto the power grid and see how well that works out. Some places will absorb it just fine, other places? Well, in short, they are f'd. If people want to do their part to go green, they can overnight; Turn off their heaters and air conditioners. We survived for melena without that. |
|
Appreciate
1
Cos270608.50 |
07-15-2022, 07:33 PM | #530 | |||
First Lieutenant
![]() ![]() ![]() 516
Rep 356
Posts |
Quote:
|
|||
Appreciate
0
|
07-15-2022, 07:55 PM | #532 |
Captain
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 1605
Rep 787
Posts |
So lets do both. ?
Lets wreck the power grid and transportation model, knowing it has little impact on global warming in the big picture because A: EV's are still dirty, and B: there are better places to put that effort & $$. but EV's make me "feel" green... I think there are better ways to get there, or at the very least, better management of the timing. |
Appreciate
2
Cos270608.50 Murf the Surf20294.00 |
07-15-2022, 08:17 PM | #533 | |
First Lieutenant
![]() ![]() ![]() 516
Rep 356
Posts |
Quote:
|
|
Appreciate
0
|
07-15-2022, 08:58 PM | #534 |
Colonel
![]() 7350
Rep 2,431
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
The grid and battery performance will intersect. Where and when is anyone's guess. But they will.
|
Appreciate
0
|
07-15-2022, 09:12 PM | #535 |
Brigadier General
![]() 4670
Rep 4,811
Posts |
|
Appreciate
0
|
07-15-2022, 09:14 PM | #536 | |
Captain
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 1605
Rep 787
Posts |
Quote:
In supply and demand: when there is excess demand, what happens to the system? |
|
Appreciate
1
Cos270608.50 |
07-15-2022, 09:22 PM | #537 | |
Forced Induction Connoisseur
1096
Rep 854
Posts
Drives: 23 X5MC / 23 720s
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: AZ
iTrader: (0)
Garage List 2024 G87 M2 [0.00]
2023 Mclaren 720s [0.00] 2005 Honda S2000 [0.00] 2023 BMW X5MC [0.00] 1964 Ford Mustang [0.00] 1968 Pontiac GTO [0.00] |
Quote:
Imagine thinking that the utilities are magically going to be granted every easement they want to run fresh lines. ![]()
__________________
Oy vey, look at all these shekels
|
|
Appreciate
2
chad86tsi1605.00 Quadruple VANOS1342.00 |
07-15-2022, 09:36 PM | #538 | |
Captain
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 1605
Rep 787
Posts |
Quote:
My guess for intersection is 30 years at the soonest, and only if we invent a new battery tech tomorrow. |
|
Appreciate
3
|
07-15-2022, 09:52 PM | #539 | |
Captain
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 1605
Rep 787
Posts |
Quote:
The last transmission path we got granted a few months ago took about a decade, and we just broke ground on it. They think 3 years from now it might start carrying load. Last edited by chad86tsi; 07-15-2022 at 10:03 PM.. |
|
Appreciate
0
|
07-15-2022, 09:58 PM | #540 | |
Forced Induction Connoisseur
1096
Rep 854
Posts
Drives: 23 X5MC / 23 720s
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: AZ
iTrader: (0)
Garage List 2024 G87 M2 [0.00]
2023 Mclaren 720s [0.00] 2005 Honda S2000 [0.00] 2023 BMW X5MC [0.00] 1964 Ford Mustang [0.00] 1968 Pontiac GTO [0.00] |
Quote:
|
|
Appreciate
4
|
07-16-2022, 10:12 AM | #542 | |
Colonel
![]() 7350
Rep 2,431
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
Quote:
The technologies will intersect, they always do and always will. Better battery technology, public and private investment, and training more utility workers (engineers, linemen, the whole lot), among many other factors, will be part of the complex solution. When and how is anyone's guess. 30 years is one estimate. No one knows if that guess is too pessimistic, or too optimistic. |
|
Appreciate
0
|
07-16-2022, 10:57 AM | #543 | |
Captain
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 1605
Rep 787
Posts |
Quote:
Problem is people have decided to push the demand side before any of the rest of it is worked out. We still don't have a workable plan. Decision makers are making a "guess" knowing full well they don't have a plan. Crisis solutions usually suck. "Build the EV's, somebody will figure the rest of it out". I'm one of those "somebody's", and I'm saying "whoa, slow down, lets plan this out so we don't break the system along the way". All I seem to hear to that is something along the line of : "you'll figure it out when we break it because then you'll be more motivated". Our system isn't like this because of lack of motivation. We make money selling power, we are already motivated to sell more. Get ready for brownouts, curtailment, and rolling black outs. Get ready to be told you can't air condition your home when it's really hot, or heat them when it's really cold. Get ready to be told you can't charge your car this day/week/month because of the weather. Keep in mind this isn't the only variable being manipulated that puts pressure on the system. Multiple Large metro areas are actively pushing for the abandonment of natural gas in homes, no new hookups and active rebates to switch over existing homes to electric. All those BTU's will be replaced by watts from the grid. Nobody knows where those extra watts will come from, but who cares, right? Those lazy grid guys will figure that out after we kill off the gas company. We can't change that fast. It takes a decade to take a HS graduate and turn them into a *proficient lineman or engineer, and not everyone is cut out for that work, trust me. These jobs pay 6 figures already and we still can't find enough people to do the work. I can't imagine trying to ramp up the workforce logarithmically. There is a solution to all of this, but no one wants to consider it : Keep carbon in the grid a lot longer than is currently planned. |
|
Appreciate
4
|
07-16-2022, 11:49 AM | #544 | |
Brigadier General
![]() 2985
Rep 3,579
Posts |
Quote:
I've been there when ice storms covered cars in inches of ice and the entire metro area shut down for days. Not only does the ice break power transmission lines, but they have no road equipment that can remove ice/snow, so it just sits there until it melts off, which during a cold-front ice-storm can be a few days. If they want to buy that equipment...it costs money and then it just sits most of the time. Pinning all of this on EVs is ridiculous.
__________________
Current: 2018 Camaro SS 1LE, 2023 Colorado ZR2. Former: BMW 428i Gran Coupe.
|
|
Appreciate
0
|
07-16-2022, 12:06 PM | #545 | |
Captain
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 1605
Rep 787
Posts |
Quote:
There are real problems in the US, they want to convert everyone to EVs and green tech, but they don't really have the infrastructure for it and they are constantly playing catch-up for that fact. Their idea is they'll reap the benefits of the EV's and green tech to "eventually get there", but you'll shoulder the burden in QOL as a citizen there, while the EV's enjoy tax breaks and the infrastructure struggles. This is what the government does. Bring in the EV's, worry about the rest later. Of course it is ridiculous, which is I'm not saying that. it's like saying stimulus checks cause inflation. It's a factor, but not the only factor. It's still OK to say "inflation stimulus checks" to battle the inflation made worse by stimulus checks might be a stupid idea. EV's are currently <1% of the nations vehicle fleet. Plans are to make them a vast majority in the next decade or two. No one is stopping you from making that happen, but I'm saying that is going to cause problems that can't be solved in that same time frame. |
|
Appreciate
1
Cos270608.50 |
07-16-2022, 02:33 PM | #546 |
Colonel
![]() 7350
Rep 2,431
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
chad86tsi The doomsday scenario will not happen. It never does.
One idea is to take the current situation and turn it into a money making opportunity for yourself. Take your skills from the industry and sell them to the highest bidder, knowing full well there is a 30 year runway of grid evolution needed. It should carry you nicely into retirement. |
Appreciate
0
|
07-16-2022, 03:14 PM | #547 | |
Emperor
1616
Rep 2,762
Posts |
Quote:
__________________
![]() 2005 M3 Coupe, 2004 M3 Wagon, 2001 M5 Sedan, 2008 M5 6MT Sedan, 2012 128i M sport |
|
Appreciate
1
chassis7350.00 |
07-16-2022, 03:20 PM | #548 | |
Emperor
1616
Rep 2,762
Posts |
Quote:
__________________
![]() 2005 M3 Coupe, 2004 M3 Wagon, 2001 M5 Sedan, 2008 M5 6MT Sedan, 2012 128i M sport |
|
Appreciate
0
|
07-16-2022, 03:20 PM | #549 |
Colonel
![]() 7350
Rep 2,431
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
2nd life batteries are real today and will grow as a business segment.
|
Appreciate
0
|
07-16-2022, 03:24 PM | #550 | |
Private First Class
![]() 155
Rep 127
Posts |
Quote:
|
|
Appreciate
0
|
![]() |
Bookmarks |
|
|