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      07-15-2022, 07:15 PM   #529
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That really made me laugh :. But in all fairness, poor people and the lower middle class are going to be the ones hit the hardest during this "great transition"
F those people, they need to buy houses with adequate power access, or ride a bus/walk.

I've seen it posted a lot: just force their hand and it will naturally work itself out. Supply and demand will solve this, scarcity drives innovation, Somebody will invent something, It will work be fine. This is a great opportunity.

Yah, in 40 years it will be. I'd just like to make sure we get there with minimal pain and suffering along the way.

Roughly 1/3 of all energy consumed by households goes to transportation. Shift that demand onto the power grid and see how well that works out. Some places will absorb it just fine, other places? Well, in short, they are f'd.

If people want to do their part to go green, they can overnight; Turn off their heaters and air conditioners. We survived for melena without that.
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      07-15-2022, 07:33 PM   #530
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All great if you frequent a BMW forum. But what about the person barely getting by, with an undersized / outdated panel that needs a $1K - $2K upgrade before they can even think about charging a $50K car, let alone sell energy back to the grid?
I think they need to buy better shoes and get back in shape, because in a few years they will be walking, a lot.
That really made me laugh :. But in all fairness, poor people and the lower middle class are going to be the ones hit the hardest during this "great transition"
They will likely get hit hardest by climate change as well.
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      07-15-2022, 07:40 PM   #531
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They will likely get hit hardest by climate change as well.
Yup.
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      07-15-2022, 07:55 PM   #532
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They will likely get hit hardest by climate change as well.
So lets do both. ?

Lets wreck the power grid and transportation model, knowing it has little impact on global warming in the big picture because A: EV's are still dirty, and B: there are better places to put that effort & $$.

but EV's make me "feel" green...

I think there are better ways to get there, or at the very least, better management of the timing.
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      07-15-2022, 08:17 PM   #533
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They will likely get hit hardest by climate change as well.
So lets do both. ?

Lets wreck the power grid and transportation model, knowing it has little impact on global warming in the big picture because A: EV's are still dirty, and B: there are better places to put that effort & $$.

but EV's make me "feel" green...

I think there are better ways to get there, or at the very least, better management of the timing.
The grid can be capable of doing what we need it to do with investment. It's a very solvable problem and I think many use the grid as a pretext because they dont believe we need to respond to climate change. Or they just don't want to be bothered.
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      07-15-2022, 08:58 PM   #534
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The grid and battery performance will intersect. Where and when is anyone's guess. But they will.
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      07-15-2022, 09:12 PM   #535
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If people want to do their part to go green, they can overnight; Turn off their heaters and air conditioners. We survived for melena without that.
almost brought up my lunch. love autospell.
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      07-15-2022, 09:14 PM   #536
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The grid can be capable of doing what we need it to do with investment. It's a very solvable problem and I think many use the grid as a pretext because they dont believe we need to respond to climate change. Or they just don't want to be bothered.
I work on the grid, the timetables and available resources are the problem. You could throw a few hundred trillion $$ at it today by presidential decree and still won't be able to get it done in the timeline being pushed buy the demand side of the equation.

In supply and demand: when there is excess demand, what happens to the system?
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      07-15-2022, 09:22 PM   #537
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I work on the grid, the timetables and available resources are the problem. You could throw a few hundred trillion $$ at it today by presidential decree and still won't be able to get it done in the timeline being pushed buy the demand side of the equation.

In supply and demand: when there is excess demand, what happens to the system?
Haha how ya'll doing on conductor and metering pedestals?

Imagine thinking that the utilities are magically going to be granted every easement they want to run fresh lines.
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      07-15-2022, 09:36 PM   #538
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The grid and battery performance will intersect. Where and when is anyone's guess. But they will.
If we are using lithium batteries for the cars, where will the grid batteries come from? With current known sources of lithium ore we have a 165 year supply at 2018 production rates. If we multiply demand 20 fold for cars and another 20 fold for electrical storage, we will run out long before we get there. We need to invent another technology to make that happen.

My guess for intersection is 30 years at the soonest, and only if we invent a new battery tech tomorrow.
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      07-15-2022, 09:52 PM   #539
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Haha how ya'll doing on conductor and metering pedestals?

Imagine thinking that the utilities are magically going to be granted every easement they want to run fresh lines.
In 2015 when I hired on to my utility and got my first tour of the nearest sub, I pointed to the new 20MW transformer and asked how much they cost, he told me $2million, but really it was the time. It takes 2 years to get one on a good day. I hear it's much Longer now a days.

The last transmission path we got granted a few months ago took about a decade, and we just broke ground on it. They think 3 years from now it might start carrying load.

Last edited by chad86tsi; 07-15-2022 at 10:03 PM..
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      07-15-2022, 09:58 PM   #540
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
In 2015 when I hired on to my utility and got my first tour of the nearest sub, I pointed to the new 20MW transformer and asked how much they cost, he told me $2million, but really it was the time. It takes 2 years to get one on a good day. I hear it's much Longer now a days.

The last transmission path we got granted a few months ago took about a decade, and we broke ground on it yet. They think 3 years from now it might start carrying load.
No kidding. Biggest capex for my operations isn’t transformers, switchgear or GOABs, it’s paying my high voltage crew for all the planning and certification for it to meet code and the power pool’s requirements. These geniuses who don’t understand how rare lithium is and how it’s literally e-waste after their used up are amazing.
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      07-15-2022, 10:01 PM   #541
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      07-16-2022, 10:12 AM   #542
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
If we are using lithium batteries for the cars, where will the grid batteries come from? With current known sources of lithium ore we have a 165 year supply at 2018 production rates. If we multiply demand 20 fold for cars and another 20 fold for electrical storage, we will run out long before we get there. We need to invent another technology to make that happen.

My guess for intersection is 30 years at the soonest, and only if we invent a new battery tech tomorrow.
Who knows?

The technologies will intersect, they always do and always will.

Better battery technology, public and private investment, and training more utility workers (engineers, linemen, the whole lot), among many other factors, will be part of the complex solution.

When and how is anyone's guess. 30 years is one estimate. No one knows if that guess is too pessimistic, or too optimistic.
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      07-16-2022, 10:57 AM   #543
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Who knows?

The technologies will intersect, they always do and always will.

Better battery technology, public and private investment, and training more utility workers (engineers, linemen, the whole lot), among many other factors, will be part of the complex solution.

When and how is anyone's guess. 30 years is one estimate. No one knows if that guess is too pessimistic, or too optimistic.
Yes, I agree with all of that.

Problem is people have decided to push the demand side before any of the rest of it is worked out. We still don't have a workable plan. Decision makers are making a "guess" knowing full well they don't have a plan. Crisis solutions usually suck.

"Build the EV's, somebody will figure the rest of it out". I'm one of those "somebody's", and I'm saying "whoa, slow down, lets plan this out so we don't break the system along the way". All I seem to hear to that is something along the line of : "you'll figure it out when we break it because then you'll be more motivated". Our system isn't like this because of lack of motivation. We make money selling power, we are already motivated to sell more.

Get ready for brownouts, curtailment, and rolling black outs. Get ready to be told you can't air condition your home when it's really hot, or heat them when it's really cold. Get ready to be told you can't charge your car this day/week/month because of the weather.

Keep in mind this isn't the only variable being manipulated that puts pressure on the system. Multiple Large metro areas are actively pushing for the abandonment of natural gas in homes, no new hookups and active rebates to switch over existing homes to electric. All those BTU's will be replaced by watts from the grid. Nobody knows where those extra watts will come from, but who cares, right? Those lazy grid guys will figure that out after we kill off the gas company.

We can't change that fast. It takes a decade to take a HS graduate and turn them into a *proficient lineman or engineer, and not everyone is cut out for that work, trust me. These jobs pay 6 figures already and we still can't find enough people to do the work. I can't imagine trying to ramp up the workforce logarithmically.

There is a solution to all of this, but no one wants to consider it : Keep carbon in the grid a lot longer than is currently planned.
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      07-16-2022, 11:49 AM   #544
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post

Get ready for brownouts, curtailment, and rolling black outs. Get ready to be told you can't air condition your home when it's really hot, or heat them when it's really cold. Get ready to be told you can't charge your car this day/week/month because of the weather.
EVs being charged mostly off-peak has got to be a drop in the bucket for this and only results in a more efficient grid for the most part. The real reason for the things you just said is ever increasing building/development, more homes, more businesses, more power needs. I go to TX several times a year and it's just blowing up. The highways and roads for one are locked behind the building demand and never catch up. It's endless and constant road construction for that reason. EVs will be a gradual trend and this sky-falling **** has got to stop. There are real problems in TX, they want to attract businesses and people, but they don't really have the infrastructure for it and they are constantly playing catch-up for that fact. Their idea is they'll reap the benefits of the businesses and "eventually get there", but you'll shoulder the burden in QOL as a citizen there, while the businesses enjoy tax breaks and the infrastructure struggles. This is what the government there does. Bring in the businesses, worry about the rest later.

I've been there when ice storms covered cars in inches of ice and the entire metro area shut down for days. Not only does the ice break power transmission lines, but they have no road equipment that can remove ice/snow, so it just sits there until it melts off, which during a cold-front ice-storm can be a few days. If they want to buy that equipment...it costs money and then it just sits most of the time.

Pinning all of this on EVs is ridiculous.
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      07-16-2022, 12:06 PM   #545
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There are real problems in TX, they want to attract businesses and people, but they don't really have the infrastructure for it and they are constantly playing catch-up for that fact. Their idea is they'll reap the benefits of the businesses and "eventually get there", but you'll shoulder the burden in QOL as a citizen there, while the businesses enjoy tax breaks and the infrastructure struggles. This is what the government there does. Bring in the businesses, worry about the rest later.

There are real problems in the US, they want to convert everyone to EVs and green tech, but they don't really have the infrastructure for it and they are constantly playing catch-up for that fact. Their idea is they'll reap the benefits of the EV's and green tech to "eventually get there", but you'll shoulder the burden in QOL as a citizen there, while the EV's enjoy tax breaks and the infrastructure struggles. This is what the government does. Bring in the EV's, worry about the rest later.

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Pinning all of this on EVs is ridiculous.
Of course it is ridiculous, which is I'm not saying that. it's like saying stimulus checks cause inflation. It's a factor, but not the only factor. It's still OK to say "inflation stimulus checks" to battle the inflation made worse by stimulus checks might be a stupid idea.

EV's are currently <1% of the nations vehicle fleet. Plans are to make them a vast majority in the next decade or two. No one is stopping you from making that happen, but I'm saying that is going to cause problems that can't be solved in that same time frame.
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      07-16-2022, 02:33 PM   #546
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chad86tsi The doomsday scenario will not happen. It never does.

One idea is to take the current situation and turn it into a money making opportunity for yourself. Take your skills from the industry and sell them to the highest bidder, knowing full well there is a 30 year runway of grid evolution needed. It should carry you nicely into retirement.
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      07-16-2022, 03:14 PM   #547
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
If we are using lithium batteries for the cars, where will the grid batteries come from? With current known sources of lithium ore we have a 165 year supply at 2018 production rates. If we multiply demand 20 fold for cars and another 20 fold for electrical storage, we will run out long before we get there. We need to invent another technology to make that happen.

My guess for intersection is 30 years at the soonest, and only if we invent a new battery tech tomorrow.
2nd life for car batteries will rapidly become a good supply. Most car batteries hit 80% of useable capacity by 250-500,000 miles. Most cars are off the road way before that point, and 20% deg is no problem for a grid battery starting point.
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      07-16-2022, 03:20 PM   #548
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
Get ready for brownouts, curtailment, and rolling black outs. Get ready to be told you can't air condition your home when it's really hot, or heat them when it's really cold. Get ready to be told you can't charge your car this day/week/month because of the weather.
This is why I think when people ask me the payback period on my home solar/battery system, I think they're missing the point. I bought that stuff to maintain my quality of life first and foremost-- the fact that it'll pay for itself is just gravy.
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      07-16-2022, 03:20 PM   #549
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2nd life batteries are real today and will grow as a business segment.
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      07-16-2022, 03:24 PM   #550
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Thank you for this post.

When someone says Texas "privatized" its power grid, it is clear they don't understand the subject matter. Utilities are private companies that "own" the nation's electrical "grid" at the state level. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) can have regulatory jurisdiction over a state's grid IF the state subrogates jurisdiction to the Feds. Large states like Texas and California have their own state-level Energy Regulatory Commissions. I had to learn the regulatory side in a prior life because I used to write contracts for a company that was trying to establish and sell drone flight inspection services to the electric utility industry. The Federal government makes doing anything a complete pain in the ass.

Your description of the physics behind electrical generation and transmission should better understood by those who argue such things as "planet saving". The problem with such people is one has to write an internet thesis paper to explain things that these people don't understand and therefore don't believe what is being told to them, or there is some sort of political agenda behind the words. Things are engineered on purpose as an amalgamation over time makes engineered systems better. Trying to go carbonless via "sustainable* energy" in the future is retrograde.

* the new buzzword is "Renewables".

Thanks.
Texas deregulated or privatized only the generation and retail electric markets. The "wires" side of the business i.e. transmission and distribution lines, are still regulated by the PUC and they pretty much follow NERC and FERC guidelines across the state but are not forced to do so except at the interconnections between ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) the Eastern and Western grids, there are only DC ties and not AC to rest of the country. Texas/ERCOT is independently operated as are the other 2 grids.
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