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      11-14-2019, 03:27 PM   #2443
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamb1t View Post
The model S and X have been out for many years especially the S. Tesla's sales stats show these two models are not doing well at all. What is keeping them afloat is Model 3. Model Y will help lift sales.
That said, Tesla's profit (if any) is not as healthy as BMW. At the end of the day, it's all about profit. You cannot keep relying on investor's money.
Musk don't care about profit... only thing he cares about is having a colony on Mars. How do you sustain life on mars... answer resides in battery technology. Tesla battery technology is what will make his dream come reality.
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      11-14-2019, 09:56 PM   #2444
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Pickup trucks generally have some of the highest profit margins no? So if this takes off - and it has a lot of potential to - well...
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      11-14-2019, 09:57 PM   #2445
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Right now Iím debating between the Tesla pickup or an X5. My Durango is currently getting a new transmission at < 40,000 miles. I just hope the Tesla pickup isnít god awful ugly.
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      11-14-2019, 11:00 PM   #2446
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Tesla model 3 wins 2019 midsize car of the year on BMW and Audiís home turf.

https://www.axelspringer.com/en/pres...-the-best-cars
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      11-15-2019, 08:04 AM   #2447
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalAthlete View Post
Right now Iím debating between the Tesla pickup or an X5. My Durango is currently getting a new transmission at < 40,000 miles. I just hope the Tesla pickup isnít god awful ugly.
While I believe an electric truck form Tesla would be awesome, I guarantee that $50k price point is not happening. The first offerings of the truck will be $70-80k, and then 2 years later they'll sell a "stripped down" one with 2 speakers, cloth seats, and other nonsense and then it will still be over $50k (if we are comparing it to the PROMISED $35k price point of the Model 3).

If you currently have a Durango, and are looking at an eSUV or eTruck, have you ruled out Rivian? They have tons of backing (Ford, Amazon, and Cox) and production is to start middle of 2020. While the Truck and SUV start at $69,000 and $72,500 respectively, that's before the Federal rebate.
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      11-15-2019, 11:45 AM   #2448
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Originally Posted by NorCalAthlete View Post
Right now Iím debating between the Tesla pickup or an X5. My Durango is currently getting a new transmission at < 40,000 miles. I just hope the Tesla pickup isnít god awful ugly.
At least it won't have a transmission.
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      11-15-2019, 11:49 AM   #2449
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Quote:
Originally Posted by turboawdfanatic View Post
Tesla model 3 wins 2019 midsize car of the year on BMW and Audiís home turf.

https://www.axelspringer.com/en/pres...-the-best-cars
I think Musk may have shoulder issues. It's very common for sedentary people to be afflicted by "frozen shoulder" (not saying that's what he has) at his age.

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      11-16-2019, 02:04 AM   #2450
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Originally Posted by Conissah View Post
While I believe an electric truck form Tesla would be awesome, I guarantee that $50k price point is not happening. The first offerings of the truck will be $70-80k, and then 2 years later they'll sell a "stripped down" one with 2 speakers, cloth seats, and other nonsense and then it will still be over $50k (if we are comparing it to the PROMISED $35k price point of the Model 3).

If you currently have a Durango, and are looking at an eSUV or eTruck, have you ruled out Rivian? They have tons of backing (Ford, Amazon, and Cox) and production is to start middle of 2020. While the Truck and SUV start at $69,000 and $72,500 respectively, that's before the Federal rebate.
I have my own doubts about Tesla meeting their $50k projection, but that's kinda why I mentioned X5 vs Tesla...I figure one way or the other it'll cost me ~$70k, but the plus side to the Tesla is it won't cost me ANOTHER $25k in gas and maintenance before it's even paid off.
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      11-16-2019, 06:12 PM   #2451
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Originally Posted by turboawdfanatic View Post
Tesla model 3 wins 2019 midsize car of the year on BMW and Audi’s home turf.

https://www.axelspringer.com/en/pres...-the-best-cars
Not in... Canada. Model 3 started rotting as soon as arriving Nov-Dec 2018. Even some winter driven February-March 2019, they stunned our media with reports of paint peel on the sides (salts and sand) and rapid corrosion. In the end, they are garbage cheap steel that makes 2000s mazda look good. Far below Toyota and slightly below Honda- Honda which is bad these days for paint (This years class action in Qc to cover 100,000 Civic owners 2006-2014, some 300,000,000 million $).

Comparing tesla's projected battery fail (6-8 years to chemical decay) or cheap body, versus BMWs ULSAB AC technology (can last decades with average maintenance and leaning), is pointless.

With winter cutting off range by as much as 70% (a Model 3 AWD I had access to dropped to 170kms!), and 10,000$ US worth of incentives gone, its sales plummeted.

The Model 3s are displacing the run of the mill 3 series lease types, with few options, entry level saloons. The higher you go up in class, no such effect. SUVs? the contrary.

Where I live, BMWs are growing and growing in sales. I guess peopel cue din seeing mint looking 2000s BMWs, all winter driven, 4-6 months of ice and salts, no rust..

Last edited by Musashi; 11-19-2019 at 03:53 PM..
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      11-16-2019, 06:17 PM   #2452
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalAthlete View Post
I have my own doubts about Tesla meeting their $50k projection, but that's kinda why I mentioned X5 vs Tesla...I figure one way or the other it'll cost me ~$70k, but the plus side to the Tesla is it won't cost me ANOTHER $25k in gas and maintenance before it's even paid off.
Do not forget the battery failure. In chemical engineering, the mean lifespan for all liquid Li Ion batteries is between 6 and 8 years, 500 Low state cycles. It is a constant across aerospace and industrial applications. hence why tesla carefully and sneakingly introduced, April 19, its "Normal Decay" clauses for battery warranty refusal. NO MORE MILLION MILES as too many got it and a single 20,000$ pack would eat through 10 cars worth of profit! Tesla carefully says that neither range nor battery capacity are indicators of battery health.

Indeed, it is LOW STATE IMPEDANCE. Once it shoots above 3,000milliohms or so, whether 200 miles or 100,000 miles old, it is DONE. ching ching, 20-25,000$. Some owners had their fail at 2,000 miles, Covered by warranty, not their fault, they had no chance to kill it in 20-50 days. but at 80,000 kms and 5-6 year marc? tesla will now refuse the warranty.

What this means is that when the impedance testing proliferates, owners will see their teslas, Bolts etc, depreciate accordingly to the impedance figure of their battery. So whereas I saw 20 yr old e3X with 500,000 kms in Africa, minty looking, that will never ever happen with any liquid Li Ion battery. they die just sitting. Figuratively, store it 7 years and fire it up, and no it wil lnever perform like new, acting up, cutting off amperage etc.

Case and point, Porsche and Taycan tells that it is a consumable. Sure, taycan owners carry 30,000$ pocket change for new batteries, but taycan's electrical chemistry is the same as anywhere else on the planet, and Tesla's etc.
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      11-16-2019, 07:49 PM   #2453
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Musashi View Post
Do not forget the battery failure. In chemical engineering, the mean lifespan for all liquid Li Ion batteries is between 6 and 8 years, 500 Low state cycles. It is a constant across aerospace and industrial applications. hence why tesla carefully and sneakingly introduced, April 19, its "Normal Decay" clauses for battery warranty refusal. NO MORE MILLION MILES as too many got it and a single 20,000$ pack would eat through 10 cars worth of profit! Tesla carefully says that neither range nor battery capacity are indicators of battery health.

Indeed, it is LOW STATE IMPEDANCE. Once it shoots above 3,000milliohms or so, whether 200 miles or 100,000 miles old, it is DONE. ching ching, 20-25,000$. Some owners had their fail at 2,000 miles, Covered by warranty, not their fault, they had no chance to kill it in 20-50 days. but at 80,000 kms and 5-6 year marc? tesla will now refuse the warranty.

What this means is that when the impedance testing proliferates, owners will see their teslas, Bolts etc, depreciate accordingly to the impedance figure of their battery. So whereas I saw 20 yr old e3X with 500,000 kms in Africa, minty looking, that will never ever happen with any liquid Li Ion battery. they die just sitting. Figuratively, store it 7 years and fire it up, and no it wil lnever perform like new, acting up, cutting off amperage etc.

Case and point, Porsche and Taycan tells that it is a consumable. Sure, taycan owners carry 30,000$ pocket change for new batteries, but taycan's electrical chemistry is the same as anywhere else on the planet, and Tesla's etc.
Iíd probably be replacing my car by then. But at least I have the assurance Tesla warranties the battery to retain 70% capacity for 8yrs. Being itís at Teslaís discretion how they determine capacity. Wonder what they will say and how customers will react. Guess weíll find out in 7 yrs. Thatís if Tesla is still around then lol

Last edited by turboawdfanatic; 11-16-2019 at 08:00 PM..
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      11-17-2019, 01:43 AM   #2454
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Musashi View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalAthlete View Post
I have my own doubts about Tesla meeting their $50k projection, but that's kinda why I mentioned X5 vs Tesla...I figure one way or the other it'll cost me ~$70k, but the plus side to the Tesla is it won't cost me ANOTHER $25k in gas and maintenance before it's even paid off.
Do not forget the battery failure. In chemical engineering, the mean lifespan for all liquid Li Ion batteries is between 6 and 8 years, 500 Low state cycles. It is a constant across aerospace and industrial applications. hence why tesla carefully and sneakingly introduced, April 19, its "Normal Decay" clauses for battery warranty refusal. NO MORE MILLION MILES as too many got it and a single 20,000$ pack would eat through 10 cars worth of profit! Tesla carefully says that neither range nor battery capacity are indicators of battery health.

Indeed, it is LOW STATE IMPEDANCE. Once it shoots above 3,000milliohms or so, whether 200 miles or 100,000 miles old, it is DONE. ching ching, 20-25,000$. Some owners had their fail at 2,000 miles, Covered by warranty, not their fault, they had no chance to kill it in 20-50 days. but at 80,000 kms and 5-6 year marc? tesla will now refuse the warranty.

What this means is that when the impedance testing proliferates, owners will see their teslas, Bolts etc, depreciate accordingly to the impedance figure of their battery. So whereas I saw 20 yr old e3X with 500,000 kms in Africa, minty looking, that will never ever happen with any liquid Li Ion battery. they die just sitting. Figuratively, store it 7 years and fire it up, and no it wil lnever perform like new, acting up, cutting off amperage etc.

Case and point, Porsche and Taycan tells that it is a consumable. Sure, taycan owners carry 30,000$ pocket change for new batteries, but taycan's electrical chemistry is the same as anywhere else on the planet, and Tesla's etc.
Great post.
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      11-17-2019, 03:05 PM   #2455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Musashi View Post
Do not forget the battery failure. In chemical engineering, the mean lifespan for all liquid Li Ion batteries is between 6 and 8 years, 500 Low state cycles. It is a constant across aerospace and industrial applications. hence why tesla carefully and sneakingly introduced, April 19, its "Normal Decay" clauses for battery warranty refusal. NO MORE MILLION MILES as too many got it and a single 20,000$ pack would eat through 10 cars worth of profit! Tesla carefully says that neither range nor battery capacity are indicators of battery health.

Indeed, it is LOW STATE IMPEDANCE. Once it shoots above 3,000milliohms or so, whether 200 miles or 100,000 miles old, it is DONE. ching ching, 20-25,000$. Some owners had their fail at 2,000 miles, Covered by warranty, not their fault, they had no chance to kill it in 20-50 days. but at 80,000 kms and 5-6 year marc? tesla will now refuse the warranty.

What this means is that when the impedance testing proliferates, owners will see their teslas, Bolts etc, depreciate accordingly to the impedance figure of their battery. So whereas I saw 20 yr old e3X with 500,000 kms in Africa, minty looking, that will never ever happen with any liquid Li Ion battery. they die just sitting. Figuratively, store it 7 years and fire it up, and no it wil lnever perform like new, acting up, cutting off amperage etc.

Case and point, Porsche and Taycan tells that it is a consumable. Sure, taycan owners carry 30,000$ pocket change for new batteries, but taycan's electrical chemistry is the same as anywhere else on the planet, and Tesla's etc.
Key phrasing there was "before it's paid off". As in, within 5-6 years. If they want to play games about warranty repairs after that, that's a bridge I'll cross when I come to it. If they advertise it as warrantied to 250,000 miles, well, it better last me till 250k miles. And if it only lasts to 3,000 they damn well better replace it.

Edit - also, still not seeing where people are getting $20k for battery replacement. As of last year it was $5k. If it costs me $5k for a new battery after 6-8 years, compare this:

(15k miles / year)/(25 mpg) = 600 gallons / year on gas.

At current California prices of $4.69 for premium (if I got the X5) that would be 600 * 4.69 = ~$2800 / year on gas alone.

$2800*6 years = almost $17,000.

Last edited by NorCalAthlete; 11-17-2019 at 04:43 PM..
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      11-17-2019, 06:15 PM   #2456
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Only time will tell. But there are plenty of 2012 model s owners that see less than 10% degradation after 7 yrs. since then Tesla has improved their bms and temp management of the battery cells...which I’d imagine will help reduce degradation even more.
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      11-17-2019, 10:17 PM   #2457
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So, that first render I posted? The kinda egg-shaped avalanche-esque whatever - a few additional details.

1. Apparently the dude who created that render got hired by Tesla for a year or two.
2. Friend claims her friend was one of the engineers on it and had texted her pics at one point a while back. She said it looked very similar to what I posted.

Weíll see how it plays out.
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      11-17-2019, 11:27 PM   #2458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalAthlete View Post
still not seeing where people are getting $20k for battery replacement. As of last year it was $5k. If it costs me $5k for a new battery after 6-8 years, compare this:

(15k miles / year)/(25 mpg) = 600 gallons / year on gas.

At current California prices of $4.69 for premium (if I got the X5) that would be 600 * 4.69 = ~$2800 / year on gas alone.

$2800*6 years = almost $17,000.
Maybe they are including the cost of charging the battery daily.
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      11-17-2019, 11:31 PM   #2459
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Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalAthlete View Post
still not seeing where people are getting $20k for battery replacement. As of last year it was $5k. If it costs me $5k for a new battery after 6-8 years, compare this:

(15k miles / year)/(25 mpg) = 600 gallons / year on gas.

At current California prices of $4.69 for premium (if I got the X5) that would be 600 * 4.69 = ~$2800 / year on gas alone.

$2800*6 years = almost $17,000.
Maybe they are including the cost of charging the battery daily.
I was curious about this too. I've asked some TESLA (...or BMW i-vehicles) how much their electricity bill increased. Some get by charging on someone else's dollar, but for those that charge at home, they've seen increases in the $50-100 range.
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      11-18-2019, 12:14 AM   #2460
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I was curious about this too. I've asked some TESLA (...or BMW i-vehicles) how much their electricity bill increased. Some get by charging on someone else's dollar, but for those that charge at home, they've seen increases in the $50-100 range.
Highly situational imo. Depends on your provider, access at work, whether you bought one with free supercharging, etc.

For me, I'll be able to charge at work or at multiple superchargers in my area. Even many local schools have installed solar panels over entire swaths of the parking lots and added chargers. Chargers at hotels, grocery stores, sporting events, etc.

I don't foresee that being a significant cost to factor in.
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      11-18-2019, 12:27 AM   #2461
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I don't foresee that being a significant cost to factor in.
The time and cost to refuel is significant on an ICE car but insignificant on a Tesla/EV? You can't sell that logic anywhere.
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      11-18-2019, 01:24 AM   #2462
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The time and cost to refuel is significant on an ICE car but insignificant on a Tesla/EV? You can't sell that logic anywhere.
I use Booster at work for gas.

I can plug in to charge at work.

Neither costs me any time - full tank by the time Iím ready to leave the office.

Booster still costs me gas money.

Work charging stations donít.

Ergo, time and cost to charge is insignificant TO ME for my specific situation.
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      11-18-2019, 01:43 AM   #2463
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Originally Posted by NorCalAthlete View Post
I use Booster at work for gas.

I can plug in to charge at work.

Neither costs me any time - full tank by the time Iím ready to leave the office.

Booster still costs me gas money.

Work charging stations donít.

Ergo, time and cost to charge is insignificant TO ME for my specific situation.
That works for you NOW because you're early to the party. Or maybe you're the boss. Either way a minority currently.
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      11-18-2019, 02:10 AM   #2464
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I may be in the minority, but Iím hardly alone. You said below ďcanít sell that logic anywhere.Ē

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
The time and cost to refuel is significant on an ICE car but insignificant on a Tesla/EV? You can't sell that logic anywhere.
Seems to me the number of Teslas already sold to date are in line with that logic.
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