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      03-24-2020, 08:01 PM   #1
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Are used car prices rolling over?

I follow used (pre-owned) prices for a couple of high performance models on my wish list. Is it my hopeful thinking, or are discretionary model (not the family grocery getter) car prices starting to soften?
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      03-24-2020, 08:20 PM   #2
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I see that trend as well.
Probably will get more customer buyer friendly as the economy continues in its current direction.
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      03-24-2020, 08:24 PM   #3
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Please post some examples if you don't mind
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      03-24-2020, 08:36 PM   #4
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High horsepower four doors.
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      03-24-2020, 09:38 PM   #5
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The Fed is forecasting 30%+ unemployment in the short term?

Yes. There will be deals out there.

There are going to be a lot of people living on the edge of their means (i.e. leveraged to the hilt) that are going to have to make a choice between food and toys.

P-Cars are nice, but they're not all that fun when you don't have enough cash to keep the lights on, a roof over the family's head or food on the table.

Be patient. The carnage hasn't even *started* yet.

Just my 0.02.

R.
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      03-24-2020, 09:58 PM   #6
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Speaking of which, you may see some of the P car guys come back. You might see this stuff happen with P cars too but even bigger price cuts there.
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      03-25-2020, 12:48 AM   #7
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Doubt that folks with P cars will be affected this much, though some people will have to sell their cars no doubt. 30+ unemployment sounds like a catastrophe nobody has quite seen in this country
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      03-25-2020, 07:00 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by flybigjet View Post
Be patient. The carnage hasn't even *started* yet.

Just my 0.02.

R.
yup ^
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      03-25-2020, 08:16 AM   #9
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I am not seeing it yet, was in the market before this hit but the wife's law practice has ground toa halt so will not be able to pounce even if prices tumble, just too risky in case i lose my job or something like that.
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      03-25-2020, 03:02 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fastboatster View Post
Doubt that folks with P cars will be affected this much, though some people will have to sell their cars no doubt. 30+ unemployment sounds like a catastrophe nobody has quite seen in this country
IMO most folks with P cars have them paid off or are savvy with financing, vs. BMW basically lives off its great lease deals, which allows people to step into BMWs more easily. I think the average P car owner is going to sit tight but no need to start dumping cars. It's the guy living beyond his means with a lease that will probably need to start getting out of their lease to stop the bleeding.

In that same vein, I think you'll see Porsche dealerships start to give better discounts but they aren't going to upend their model and start giving leases away the way BMW does.
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      03-25-2020, 08:16 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flacht3 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by fastboatster View Post
Doubt that folks with P cars will be affected this much, though some people will have to sell their cars no doubt. 30+ unemployment sounds like a catastrophe nobody has quite seen in this country
IMO most folks with P cars have them paid off or are savvy with financing, vs. BMW basically lives off its great lease deals, which allows people to step into BMWs more easily. I think the average P car owner is going to sit tight but no need to start dumping cars. It's the guy living beyond his means with a lease that will probably need to start getting out of their lease to stop the bleeding.

In that same vein, I think you'll see Porsche dealerships start to give better discounts but they aren't going to upend their model and start giving leases away the way BMW does.
Ehh I think your somewhat right about P car owners but if you ever venture over to rennlist you will find every other thread revolving around concern for resale value, depreciation, etc.
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      03-25-2020, 10:14 PM   #12
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Ehh I think your somewhat right about P car owners but if you ever venture over to rennlist you will find every other thread revolving around concern for resale value, depreciation, etc.
Very true...but you see it mostly on the GT3 forums vs. the standard 911 forums, because a large part of that GT3 crowd thought they were buying a depreciation-proof asset which is just laughable (and paid 10% over sticker for the privilege).

You have an equal, if not greater amount of folks over there that couldn't give a crap about depreciation and resale.

My point was less about the owners worrying about depreciation, more about them not being in a tough spot financially because of the car.
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      03-26-2020, 10:32 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Flacht3 View Post
Very true...but you see it mostly on the GT3 forums vs. the standard 911 forums, because a large part of that GT3 crowd thought they were buying a depreciation-proof asset which is just laughable (and paid 10% over sticker for the privilege).

You have an equal, if not greater amount of folks over there that couldn't give a crap about depreciation and resale.

My point was less about the owners worrying about depreciation, more about them not being in a tough spot financially because of the car.
I think there are two types of P car owners. The first is the type that can easily afford one and buys it outright and most will not be impacted by the pandemic. The other is a younger cohort who rent their home and lease/finance a nice car as their one "extravagance". These are the owners/lessees who will need to bail out of their cars.
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      03-26-2020, 11:50 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveinArizona View Post
I think there are two types of P car owners. The first is the type that can easily afford one and buys it outright and most will not be impacted by the pandemic. The other is a younger cohort who rent their home and lease/finance a nice car as their one "extravagance". These are the owners/lessees who will need to bail out of their cars.
Based on this, there are going to be some sweet M-car deals. Especially on CS's
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      03-27-2020, 03:44 AM   #15
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Just wait a few more months. Everything is going to go off a cliff.
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      03-27-2020, 08:34 AM   #16
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If CV keeps going, there will be fire sales on toys from people out of work etc.

I don't want people to lose their jobs, but maybe I'll finally be able to pick up a nice driver quality old muscle car stupid cheap. Even better would be one already LS swapped. Need to find some NA Miatas to flip as well. Market is hot for clean ones
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      03-28-2020, 09:02 AM   #17
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A new listing meeting my search criteria is priced below a psychological threshold, meaning it is priced lower than existing listings with the same search criteria. Features, model, year, mileage, clean title and specifications are comparable. It's an apples-apples comparison.

It will be interesting to see how this develops.

Last edited by chassis; 03-28-2020 at 09:23 AM..
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      03-28-2020, 09:23 AM   #18
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A tangential data point. I sold a few mid range watches (Omega, Breitling) to pull together funds for my M240 late last year, glad I did it when I did, the market for Swiss watches is pretty dead now.

Maybe I should try to buy them back at a discount
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      03-28-2020, 09:41 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fastboatster View Post
Doubt that folks with P cars will be affected this much, though some people will have to sell their cars no doubt. 30+ unemployment sounds like a catastrophe nobody has quite seen in this country
Yea, I don't think Porsche owners will be affected. I know someone who is a service advisor at the largest Porsche dealer in town. He says they're swamped lol
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      03-28-2020, 01:01 PM   #20
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There won't be firesales because they'll be no buyers, the amount of inventory on the market will keep the market for P cars right where they are, with slight blips. The pending Apocalypse isn't going to happen either. Yes, things will peak before trailing off, but if anyone uses their brain to learn about these viruses, they all have a run, then fade away. Things may be quiet for a little while in markets such as vacationing, ie, Cruise Line and Air Travel, but Stay Cations will be the norm. Local little trips here and there to the mountains or ocean. And honestly, although the rate of infection may be high, and the death rate slightly higher in most places, this isn't much worse than the 17'-18' Flu season that claimed 80k lives in the U.S. alone, and there was no apocalypse then either, and we HAD a vaccine (only worked in 1/3). So chillax, bunker down and just relax with all the hyperbole about things are gonna get worse. It's just silly!
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      03-28-2020, 02:23 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cooolone2 View Post
There won't be firesales because they'll be no buyers, the amount of inventory on the market will keep the market for P cars right where they are, with slight blips. The pending Apocalypse isn't going to happen either. Yes, things will peak before trailing off, but if anyone uses their brain to learn about these viruses, they all have a run, then fade away. Things may be quiet for a little while in markets such as vacationing, ie, Cruise Line and Air Travel, but Stay Cations will be the norm. Local little trips here and there to the mountains or ocean. And honestly, although the rate of infection may be high, and the death rate slightly higher in most places, this isn't much worse than the 17'-18' Flu season that claimed 80k lives in the U.S. alone, and there was no apocalypse then either, and we HAD a vaccine (only worked in 1/3). So chillax, bunker down and just relax with all the hyperbole about things are gonna get worse. It's just silly!
Excuse me, I don’t see the requisite panic and boot licking qualities in your above post. I’m going to report you to the civil authorities unless you immediately expose yourself to 24 hours of straight MSM and social media driven fear porn. It doesn’t matter if you have a 0.0004% chance of contracting and then dying of the beer virus. I want you hysterical with fear and licking boots by this time tomorrow.

Shame!!
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      03-28-2020, 02:49 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by El Conquistador View Post
A tangential data point. I sold a few mid range watches (Omega, Breitling) to pull together funds for my M240 late last year, glad I did it when I did, the market for Swiss watches is pretty dead now.

Maybe I should try to buy them back at a discount
Ehh not true for Rolex/AP/Patek etc.

Those prices are only down 2-5%, and still going well over MSRP. Trust me, been watching close as Ill be buying if they continue to fall.

Omega, Breitling, Panerai etc were already pretty soft before all this. But Im sure there will be great deals to be had.
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