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      04-01-2020, 08:17 AM   #3477
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
Looking at the numbers today, do you really beleive 2.2mm could ever be right?

We had spring break, Mardi Gras, disneyworld crowds, traveling, etc... And we are now in the 3k death range. At this point even 100k is a stretch.
I don't believe 2.2 million is correct, mainly because President is the only one that has said it.

For the "100k is a stretch", considering the best experts in the world are saying it is a real possibility I have to believe it is. Look at the modeling and the ramp and that we are still weeks away from a peak. If the peak gets us close to 50k we still have the other side to go down. We have gone over 4k deaths now with 558 deaths on the 30th and 912 deaths on the 31st. The deaths per day curve going up quickly. That's the problem with quick growth. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This seems to be a good model that of course keeps changing as we see the actual outcome of each day. Yesterday it said the total deaths wouldn't get above 84k, now it is at 93k- https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
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      04-01-2020, 08:17 AM   #3478
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David70 View Post
Trump as late as Feb. 28th said it was a hoax (educated didn't believe it). March 7th he said "“Does anybody die from the flu?” I didn’t know people died from the flu —" (educated knew). Middle March he still compared it to the Flu (surrounded by experts that didn't agree). Said he would like to have us back to work on Easter (experts didn't agree). Two days ago said we would have had 2 million to 2.2 million deaths if we hadn't done anything (yet to find anyone to explain this number).

At best he is a really slow learner, another possibility is he tells us what he thinks we want to hear or what is best for his agenda.

As he continues to learn and screw up (all of the above could have been avoided if he listened to the experts around him), not sure why we shouldn't discuss it in the "Politics/Religion" section of this forum.
President Donald Trump said Democrats are trying to use the coronavirus to damage him—and called that “their new hoax.” He did not seem to be suggesting that the outbreak itself is a hoax but rather claimed that his critics are “politicizing” the situation to make him look bad.



https://nypost.com/2020/03/16/even-d...preading-lies/

It goes to show how desperate and pathetic the Dems have become!
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      04-01-2020, 08:22 AM   #3479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bosstones View Post
In all seriousness, though, I still scratch my head at a lot of the #'s and statistics being thrown around by the media and Fed. At present, I think the response is half @$$-ed; especially when so many people cannot get tested. We have no way of knowing how many asymptomatic people are actually carrying/spreading COVID-19 since they don't know themselves or have any way of knowing. Nevermind the a-holes that might be symptomatic but not follow guidance.

If you're willing to near shut down the economy, my thought is to make it count. That means hit hard, hit fast. The longer it goes on, the worst it'll be. I'd much rather be punched hard once w/ a 4oz glove vs repeatedly w/ a 14oz glove.

6ft distancing guideline is a joke IMHO as any coughed/sneezed droplets or micronized 'stuff' can easily travel/spread further. As we enter seasonal allergy time, the reason for someone having a runny nose/sneezing/coughing becomes more opaque.

Likewise, interstate travel should be shutdown (to the extent possible....no Bradleys w/ Bushmasters but at least major highways shutdown at borders) to help limit spread. It wouldn't surprise me if the rural spread was due to people carrying COVID-19 and stopping for gas/snacks/etc en route to wherever they were trying to exfil to.
Please post an example of one of the media's numbers you don't agree with. If they are reporting a true expert then I don't blame them for reporting it.

It is tiresome to continue to go over the same topics but getting hit hard and quick has our hospitals and staff unable to deal with it and the deaths go far higher.

With the 6', everyone said it is better to not go out, this is a minimum distance recommendation if you do.

You want to get hit fast and hard but at the same time want to shutdown interstate travel to limit the spread? Isn't this the opposite?
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      04-01-2020, 08:28 AM   #3480
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglo View Post
President Donald Trump said Democrats are trying to use the coronavirus to damage him—and called that “their new hoax.” He did not seem to be suggesting that the outbreak itself is a hoax but rather claimed that his critics are “politicizing” the situation to make him look bad.



https://nypost.com/2020/03/16/even-d...preading-lies/

It goes to show how desperate and pathetic the Dems have become!
I watched the speech and not what I got from it. So go with your theory, the Democrats were saying we weren't doing enough and this was the hoax? Still seems he was way off base and they were correct?

You agree with the rest of my post?
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      04-01-2020, 08:32 AM   #3481
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David70 View Post
I watched the speech and not what I got from it. So go with your theory, the Democrats were saying we weren't doing enough and this was the hoax? Still seems he was way off base and they were correct?

You agree with the rest of my post?
I stopped reading after the first sentence once i realized you're fake news!
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      04-01-2020, 08:34 AM   #3482
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
They are dieing at about the death rate as the flu (for all age groups). We seem to be fine with not shutting down the country for those type of death rates, so why not let millennials out?
Let them out to do what? Dont they pretty much just dwell in mom's basement anyway?
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      04-01-2020, 08:34 AM   #3483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David70 View Post
I don't believe 2.2 million is correct, mainly because President is the only one that has said it.

For the "100k is a stretch", considering the best experts in the world are saying it is a real possibility I have to believe it is. Look at the modeling and the ramp and that we are still weeks away from a peak. If the peak gets us close to 50k we still have the other side to go down. We have gone over 4k deaths now with 558 deaths on the 30th and 912 deaths on the 31st. The deaths per day curve going up quickly. That's the problem with quick growth. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This seems to be a good model that of course keeps changing as we see the actual outcome of each day. Yesterday it said the total deaths wouldn't get above 84k, now it is at 93k- https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The 2.2 million came from the study his task force was using, that was the first model that was done.

The president now keeps repeating that number and the 200k number to make it look great when we have less than the 100k when it's all said and done. He and the task force are positioning themselves to claim victory.
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      04-01-2020, 08:36 AM   #3484
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      04-01-2020, 08:43 AM   #3485
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglo View Post
I stopped reading after the first sentence once i realized you're fake news!
Thank you for actually reading it and replying with some sentences. With the random reposts that you put up I can rarely figure out what your point is.
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      04-01-2020, 08:45 AM   #3486
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
Um, because the hospitalization rate is super high for every group >30 years of age compared to flu. People aren't dying because we are pulling out all the stops. If you stop being able to treat people aggressively then you end up with mortality rates like northern Italy.

I truly don't understand why this is hard to grasp.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-by-age-group/

Disclaimer: I don't know where this data came from exactly - it might not be correct. Even more conservative looking estimates blow way influenza hospitalization rates, though.

You do realize that Millennials are approximately aged 24-39 now, right? Still, letting people work when they can spread this virus without showing symptoms is a recipe to spread it to vulnerable populations.

This, it's the same reason that schools closed. Kids might not be vulnerable but they can spread it to many other people who are. It's ignorant to think that sending a particular age group of people back to work would be fine. There are reports that young healthy people are still getting it. I'm 29, and although I'm in good shape and healthy as of right now, I did have lung surgery a few years ago so I'd probably be considered a risk. You open up a can of worms doing something like this because even healthy younger people may have underlying immune issues that cause this to have a bad impact, or they will be able to spread it to other people.
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      04-01-2020, 08:47 AM   #3487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David70 View Post
Trump as late as Feb. 28th said it was a hoax (educated didn't believe it). .
Take a fcking pill..you're losing it.
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      04-01-2020, 08:48 AM   #3488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
The 2.2 million came from the study his task force was using, that was the first model that was done.

The president now keeps repeating that number and the 200k number to make it look great when we have less than the 100k when it's all said and done. He and the task force are positioning themselves to claim victory.
Did we ever see the study or have a reputable scientist ever confirm the 2.2?

I agree on the rest, once you understand how bad things could be and resign yourself to the fact that what you have been saying was way off base you should go big, then point out the great job you are doing with the high probability that the large number won't happen (by the experts) and the end result will be great (comparatively).
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      04-01-2020, 08:48 AM   #3489
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglo View Post
I stopped reading after the first sentence once i realized you're fake news!
Yea..I need to tune him out.
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      04-01-2020, 08:50 AM   #3490
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adc100 View Post
Take a fcking pill..you're losing it.
The great thing about answers like this is they are exactly the same as "I have nothing to say" and can be added to any topic anywhere. If you disagree with anything I said please post it.

Thank you.
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      04-01-2020, 08:53 AM   #3491
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglo View Post
I stopped reading after the first sentence once i realized you're fake news!

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      04-01-2020, 08:58 AM   #3492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David70 View Post
Did we ever see the study or have a reputable scientist ever confirm the 2.2?

I agree on the rest, once you understand how bad things could be and resign yourself to the fact that what you have been saying was way off base you should go big, then point out the great job you are doing with the high probability that the large number won't happen (by the experts) and the end result will be great (comparatively).
It was the imperial model, can't find the actual model link but here is an article.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft....9-1fe6fedcca75


Last week they finally noticed how wrong they were, and the task force admitted there is no way. But Trump is still using that number to show how much distancing is working.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dcexamine...05808768782336

The newer model is the first or second reply in this Twitter post.
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      04-01-2020, 09:03 AM   #3493
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David70 View Post
The great thing about answers like this is they are exactly the same as "I have nothing to say" and can be added to any topic anywhere. If you disagree with anything I said please post it.

Thank you.
You said only Trump said 2.2 million could die.

Quote:
I don't believe 2.2million is correct, mainly because President is the only one that has said it.
"The models predict that without mitigation measures, between 1.5 million to 2.2 million people in the U.S. would die from COVID-19, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator said during the briefing. But with social distancing and other mitigation efforts, those numbers can be brought down to several hundred thousand deaths. Still, that is "way too much," she said.
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      04-01-2020, 09:16 AM   #3494
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I'll be damned.

Russia sending plane filled with medical equipment to US amid coronavirus pandemic.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rus...virus-pandemic
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      04-01-2020, 09:17 AM   #3495
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CNN says death rate likely .66%

Yesterday CNN said the death rate is likely closer to .66%, I'm no fan of CNN as I believe they have lost all credibility over the last few years but the folks on the left believe them so for argument sake then lets use their numbers.

If 20% of the US population gets infected then 396,000 US deaths could be projected.

I'm making this point for a couple of reasons. I think that any loss of life because of this disease or for any other unusual cause is a tragedy. But this is what is actually happening globally right now and should be put into perspective.

I believe there are a lot of people out there arguing about a number of aspects of this outbreak and pointing fingers and assigning blame.

This is not the time for any of that. This is the time to work collaboratively to slow this disease so the loss of life can be minimized.

Peace

Last edited by Murf993; 04-01-2020 at 09:28 AM..
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      04-01-2020, 09:18 AM   #3496
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adc100 View Post
You said only Trump said 2.2 million could die.



"The models predict that without mitigation measures, between 1.5 million to 2.2 million people in the U.S. would die from COVID-19, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator said during the briefing. But with social distancing and other mitigation efforts, those numbers can be brought down to several hundred thousand deaths. Still, that is "way too much," she said.
You're correct, I should have said I am skeptical because the only place I heard it was from Trump.

From all the models and experts it seems to be that what we are doing now is the best option.
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      04-01-2020, 09:24 AM   #3497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bosstones View Post
As we enter seasonal allergy time, the reason for someone having a runny nose/sneezing/coughing becomes more opaque.
Not really, allergies don't present the same as COVID-19. Runny nose and sneezing aren't COVID-19 symptoms.
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      04-01-2020, 09:24 AM   #3498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglo View Post
&p
numbers are old, US cases have almost doubled since then.
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