[///d]

Originally Posted by ga9213

Again...this is all CURRENT state. There will be a point where the technology for recycling is more efficient and cheaper and will cross the threshold of being cheaper to recycle than to mine new lithium.

none of these current stats are going to be relevant in the future. This should be self explanatory.

True.

But, that doesn't help the fact the govt's of the world are pushing for something that is known to be unsustainable without massive changes that haven't been developed/tested/proven yet. But thats the world we live in now.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by ///d

True.

But, that doesn't help the fact the govt's of the world are pushing for something that is known to be unsustainable without massive changes that haven't been developed/tested/proven yet. But thats the world we live in now.

Sometimes you have to build the plane while flying it. On this large of a scale you can't necessarily get everything right before you start...the key is to start. The rest will come.

[Z K]

The key to EVs is new battery technology. Lithium ion has been around in cell phones and other applications for over 30 years and hasn't changed. There's a lot of drawbacks to long term lithium durability and usage.

Looking forward to solid state batteries and other stuff that can increase density, durability and faster charging. I believe that is the key to mass adoption. The average car on the road is 10 years old. We need EVs to perform same as new driving range in 10 years. A gasoline car still has the same range at 10+ years. Just as people don't replace an engine in their cars in 10 years, no one should need to replace a battery.

[Cos270]

Originally Posted by ga9213

Sometimes you have to build the plane while flying it. On this large of a scale you can't necessarily get everything right before you start...the key is to start. The rest will come.

I envy your faith in government and corporate America.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by Cos270

I envy your faith in government and corporate America.

As opposed to assuming they could get it right from the start? If that's your benchmark for bringing the technology to market, we'd have never gotten off the ground.

Tesla pioneered this...and it was entirely trial and error. (a whole lot of error) You can't R&D a product/solution to perfection before you bring something to market.

You all surely know that's not realistic. Surely.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Gasoline is one of the most price-fluctuating commodities in existence. Gasoline experiences price swings that are nearly nonsensical when compared to other essential products one uses for daily life. Since the 1970s gasoline prices have been manipulated by geopolitical and Federal-political influences. Crude oil is a conflict mineral as much as lithium. Same shit, different chemical.

That's exactly what I'm saying. So why would we expect alternative fuels and energy sources to compete "naturally" in the economy with oil? It makes no sense. So the whole argument that EV wouldn't survive without government mandates is kind of baloney, because OF COURSE it wouldn't survive. It's asking the impossible on an uneven playing field.

[neilum]

Originally Posted by Z K

The key to EVs is new battery technology. Lithium ion has been around in cell phones and other applications for over 30 years and hasn't changed. There's a lot of drawbacks to long term lithium durability and usage.

Looking forward to solid state batteries and other stuff that can increase density, durability and faster charging. I believe that is the key to mass adoption. The average car on the road is 10 years old. We need EVs to perform same as new driving range in 10 years. A gasoline car still has the same range at 10+ years. Just as people don't replace an engine in their cars in 10 years, no one should need to replace a battery.

Tough one, after 10 years most ICE cars have had significant maintenance costs and replaced parts, an EV would have used tires and wiper blades plus saved $10K+ thousands in gas $$$$.. Plus whats the difference if you now have 250 miles instead of 300? Most use cases the car would still be very servicable

[neilum]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

My E90 tells me how many miles remain until empty; I've tested it several times and found it very accurate. My E90 has 400 miles of range and recharges in 5 minutes in any town and on any road in the US. There are several gas station databases available on a smartphone or advertised on road signs if on the interstate. It's not like modern ICE vehicles throw a low fuel light and your walking 5 miles later, the E90 notifies at 61 miles, then gets persistent at 31 miles. If you do run out of fuel, a 1-gallon recharge is easy to come by and then a full recharge is 5 minutes. Right now EV does not offer that level of fast recovery.

But I do agree, the electric drivetrain is superior in torque production, torque delivery (mostly), and definitely way more efficient that ICE (that part I really like). My ideal vehicle is a ICE/EV hybrid with on-board electrical generation and at this point some small battery and mega-capacitors for peak current demand. I'd drop in a small I-6 turbo diesel to drive the generator. Cool might be an electric generator with an embedded Rotary engine; crazy would be a diesel Rotary, but apparently they are not possible because an efficient diesel combustion chamber can't be created.

I've been in a Model Y twice for low-speed in-town trips, so it's hard to judge interior noise level for the Y; but the Y is much better than the 3 based on my experience with both cars. The Model 3 I've been in serval times for high-speed trips of about an hour, it is as loud or louder than my E90 (on mostly 400,000 suspension bushings). At cruising speed you can't hear the engine in the non-M E90. The rear seats in the Model 3 are not comfortable because the footwell is shallow due to the battery placement. The Model 3 lacks detail in suspension compliance and isolation sophistication. But it's a decent car nonetheless, and I fully understand the EV drivetrain; I'm no stranger to electric motors from the first one I built out of coat hanger and wire in physics class in 1977. And no stranger to vehicle on-board battery storage from the first time I played with the Hot Wheels Sizzlers* race track set I got for Christmas in 1970. And not to mention the Electrak.

The number of households in the US that can conveniently charge at home is limited, it's hard to get a reliable estimate from the internet, but I'll peg it at 40%(?). Compared to ICE owners, any of them can recharge in 5 minutes while out running errands or commuting. I think that stat is significant to adoption. ICE is cheap, reliable, convenient, and fits most household budgets. ICE has a100+ year headstart, it's hard to turn that without artifical market forces.

That's all I'm saying.

Not anti-EV (far from it), worked for the past 14 years implementing a new disruptive nationwide transportation surveillance technology (far from a Luddite am I - listening to streamed music via a bluetooth speaker as I write this on my cell phone. Lol).

No bias; I just like to look at things with realism.

* Electric drive is way better than gravity.

I think there are several advantages of ICE vehicles, but having to go the gas station with the idea you can fill up in 5 minutes, isn't one of them. It is an inferior experience than an EV if you have a home charger overall. I literally never have to stop, maybe 3-4 times a year how can anyone argue beating that experience? Great you can fill up in 5-8 minutes of your time, every week, sometimes more than once, enjoy doing that?

My point about the running out of "gas" was in response to real-world objections I've heard in real life. There are several cool tricks modern EV's have to guide to easily to your charging destination, including real world energy consumption and guidance down to the speed you need to go to make it. Not many people know that, or would because they don't own an EV.

It is great to have a civil discussion about this topic!

I also agree EV's are not ready for mass adoption as less than half of the population can charge at home. I thought I made that clear above. If you can't charge at home I personally think its not a great idea. When anyone can charge in less than 10 minutes I think it will really open the door to mass adoption.

[Z K]

Originally Posted by neilum

Tough one, after 10 years most ICE cars have had significant maintenance costs and replaced parts, an EV would have used tires and wiper blades plus saved $10K+ thousands in gas $$$$.. Plus whats the difference if you now have 250 miles instead of 300? Most use cases the car would still be very servicable

I don't know about "significant" maintenance costs. For example, my now retired parents drive their cars over 10+ years when purchased new. Their 2012 Honda Accord has needed nothing other than $30 oil changes every 10k miles, a $80 spark plug change every 100k miles. Beyond that, it has not needed any maintenance, nothing leaks, everything works as it does when new. They still drive it cross country on road trips.

Prior to that they purchased a 2003 Camry V6... which they still own and runs like new today with over 200k miles.

The money they spent on gas? It's pennies vs what a new car would cost! Say they pump $200 in fuel a month, that's $2400 a year. You'd need to pump 20 years of gasoline before you'd save enough to buy a new Model 3 at $40-50k.

An EV would need to compete with this level of product maturity and durability. Heck, Tesla doesn't even support their own original Roadster owners and want them to buy new cars and those cars are still very new!

[G MONEY]

Originally Posted by ga9213

lol...yeah that's not accurate. Biden signed an EO to target new vehicle sales for zero emissions vehicles (includes hybrids and plug in hybrids) at 50% by 2030. Source

We all know how "in stone" EOs are.

So assuming they can even get close to hitting 50% new sales, the remaining 50% will be a slow smolder. 100% EVs will be a challenge and, again...probably another 20-30 years out....if it ever even fully gets there.

More likely we'll see hybrids or plug in hybrids continuing well into the future.

Biden will probably croak by then. The new administration will undo all of his shit. Just like they all do. Vicious cycle😡

[br438]

Originally Posted by ga9213

Sometimes you have to build the plane while flying it. On this large of a scale you can't necessarily get everything right before you start...the key is to start. The rest will come.

I guess one could gather up some materials and jump off a cliff and let me know how it goes.


... please go ahead and send me an update early on in the process... don't wait until you're finished.


I understand your optimistic assumptions, but they are just that. We can assume we will improve some efficiencies, we cannot know how much. Your affection for a single technology is clouding your ability to accept the reason that is written before you.

EVs on a market-saturated-scale is not currently attainable or sustainable. Advancing the tech is good. Being better to mother earth is good. The current creation, care, and feeding of EV for consumer transportation is... not as environmentally friendly as we hope it will become.

[HerkHealer]

Saudi Arabia just announced Today that it's scientists fear the entire World is running out of energy supplies. I think they're talking about the remaining amount of crude oil left in the Planet and how we are gobbling it up like crazy.

So ......what do we do ? More nuclear power ? More hydro ? Solar ?
I read something a few years back saying Science was on the cusp of breaking the Fusion reactor barrier, which would release unlimited amounts of energy ......forever.
That would be cool.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by HerkHealer

Saudi Arabia just announced Today that it's scientists fear the entire World is running out of energy supplies. I think they're talking about the remaining amount of crude oil left in the Planet and how we are gobbling it up like crazy.

So ......what do we do ? More nuclear power ? More hydro ? Solar ?
I read something a few years back saying Science was on the cusp of breaking the Fusion reactor barrier, which would release unlimited amounts of energy ......forever.
That would be cool.

I just assume that listening to Saudi scientists talk about energy resources is akin to listening to my icky dealer telling me about the drought and how my prices are going up.

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by neilum

I think there are several advantages of ICE vehicles, but having to go the gas station with the idea you can fill up in 5 minutes, isn't one of them. It is an inferior experience than an EV if you have a home charger overall. I literally never have to stop, maybe 3-4 times a year how can anyone argue beating that experience? Great you can fill up in 5-8 minutes of your time, every week, sometimes more than once, enjoy doing that?

My point about the running out of "gas" was in response to real-world objections I've heard in real life. There are several cool tricks modern EV's have to guide to easily to your charging destination, including real world energy consumption and guidance down to the speed you need to go to make it. Not many people know that, or would because they don't own an EV.

It is great to have a civil discussion about this topic!

I also agree EV's are not ready for mass adoption as less than half of the population can charge at home. I thought I made that clear above. If you can't charge at home I personally think its not a great idea. When anyone can charge in less than 10 minutes I think it will really open the door to mass adoption.

It's pointless. I have had people on here argue with me that the fact I had to take 5 sec each day to plug it in on my way inside from the garage was a lot more effort than going to the gas station once a week or whatever.

Honestly before I owned an EV I might have agreed with them. However once you actually experience never going to the gas station... just the thought of having to stop to get gas gives me nightmares now.

The range is another fun one. When EVs are mentioned everyone suddenly decides they need to go on cross country trips at least a couple of times a week. I have never in my life ran out of gas in an ICE vehicle and I have never ran out of range or even come close to it in the EV. It was definitely my biggest concern before owning an EV though.

The other one about fast acceleration getting old fast... no. It doesn't get old. In fact it has never gotten old in any car I've owned ICE or EV. This is especially true for a daily driver where you are constantly having to evade idiots on their phones. There is nothing like being stuck in a "cloud" of stupid... seeing a clearing... and blasting out of there. ICE or EV it's the best and no one beats EVs in that game.

I still enjoy taking out the mustang and rowing through gears. I like taking it out to the mountains and going through the twisty roads listening to the roar, but if I'm not doing that. I would take the EV all day.

[G30M]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

This guy's experience will make you think twice.

that's an old video. he's gotten himself a few more EVs since.

short answer yes.

EV for everything, and what the EV can't do M3 Touring will take over.

[Murf the Surf]

Originally Posted by G80M4

that's an old video. he's gotten himself a few more EVs since.

short answer yes.

EV for everything, and what the EV can't do M3 Touring will take over.

This video was uploaded Dec. 25, 2021 (bottom left corner).....I'm not sure how that qualifies as "old".

[HerkHealer]

I dont have an EV, nor do I want one currently.

But if I did have one. For sure I'd have a charger inside my garage. Why do people buying these 60k + cars not have one ? Maybe the backups at the charging stations are from vacation rides, people in apartments, etc.

I will buy one when they get to 1000 miles on charge

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by br438

I guess one could gather up some materials and jump off a cliff and let me know how it goes.


... please go ahead and send me an update early on in the process... don't wait until you're finished.


I understand your optimistic assumptions, but they are just that. We can assume we will improve some efficiencies, we cannot know how much. Your affection for a single technology is clouding your ability to accept the reason that is written before you.

EVs on a market-saturated-scale is not currently attainable or sustainable. Advancing the tech is good. Being better to mother earth is good. The current creation, care, and feeding of EV for consumer transportation is... not as environmentally friendly as we hope it will become.

I'd consider it more realistic than optimistic. It would be a pretty skeptical view to assume we couldn't address these issues over the next 20-30 years when we've already made amazing progress over the last 10. There's a lot of money on the table for the first one to come up with an efficient recycling strategy, charging strategy, battery technology, etc. Lots and lots of incentives. I just don't see that being ignored. I'd definitely have to disregard all past precedent to take up that position.

[HerkHealer]

Originally Posted by ga9213

I'd consider it more realistic than optimistic. It would be a pretty skeptical view to assume we couldn't address these issues over the next 20-30 years when we've already made amazing progress over the last 10. There's a lot of money on the table for the first one to come up with an efficient recycling strategy, charging strategy, battery technology, etc. Lots and lots of incentives. I just don't see that being ignored. I'd definitely have to disregard all past precedent to take up that position.

In 20 years, we will consider these EV vehicles obsolete. People forget that the F-117 Stealth fighters were flying around for 15 years before we first saw them in Desert Storm (1990). There's no telling what we have flying around today.......and what new tech is around the corner.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I think the idea that EV will require zero maintenance over the vehicle lifetime is a false one. Moving (switching) high current through electrical components is not a free-of-charge proposition. Electrical components do wear out. Motors do require maintenance and repair. Batteries eventually lose the ability to support the chemical reaction that creates current. EVs are not a zero sum game. Other non-electrical components are susceptible to wear and failure. EV are not just a AA battery wired to a DC hobby motor with a rehostat in between.

I had one friend with a Tesla who hadn't had his inverter replaced. All the other people I know who have Teslas have had at least one replaced. His failed last week and is currently at the service department (we can't have Tesla dealers in Texas) getting a new inverter.

[Murf the Surf]

Originally Posted by ga9213

I'd consider it more realistic than optimistic. It would be a pretty skeptical view to assume we couldn't address these issues over the next 20-30 years when we've already made amazing progress over the last 10. There's a lot of money on the table for the first one to come up with an efficient recycling strategy, charging strategy, battery technology, etc. Lots and lots of incentives. I just don't see that being ignored. I'd definitely have to disregard all past precedent to take up that position.

Good point, we are easily 20-30 years away from market saturation if infrastructure and battery tech get's up to speed, and that should be able to happen in that time frame. My concern is governments like Canada and UK saying they will ban the sales of ICE in a decade. There is going to be a gap, that combined with the crippling price of Gas and Diesel right now punishing people who can't change even if they want to.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by HerkHealer

In 20 years, we will consider these EV vehicles obsolete. People forget that the F-117 Stealth fighters were flying around for 15 years before we first saw them in Desert Storm (1990). There's no telling what we have flying around today.......and what new tech is around the corner.

Which is fine...when recycling becomes profitable, obsolete vehicle will retain value for their materials....probably better than 20 year old ICE vehicles retain theirs.